As we get more games, some things are getting sorted out while others get even more confusing. The number 1 team won't definitely be figured out until state, but for now Hermantown has solidified their spot in the rankings. Some other teams are getting hot at the right time. Everyone on this list is from 5 different sections.
Enjoy!
1. [1] Hermantown (16-2-1)
The Hawks continue to win as they are 8-0 against Class A teams and just coming off their most important win of the season. With 2 more potentially challenging opponents on their schedule, neither of them are this week.
Tues 1/26 @ Virginia, Thurs 1/28 vs Cloquet
2. [2] Breck (13-3)
Like Hermantown, the Mustangs have actually played quite a few AA teams as they too are 8-0 against Class A teams. The things that separates them from the Hawks, however, are conjecture and their losses. Winning out won't get them a 1 seed at state unless Hermantown stumbles.
Tues 1/26 vs Blake, Thurs 1/28 vs St Paul Academy
3. [3] St Cloud Apollo (15-2)
The Eagles are 9-1 in their last 10 games, with an OT loss to Breck and 8 shut outs in that time. Of their 4 games this week, their one home game is against Hibbing; can their defense hold off the Bluejackets?
Tues 1/26 @ Little Falls, Thurs 1/28 @ St Cloud Tech, Fri 1/29 vs Hibbing, Sat 1/30 @ Virginia
4. [4] Mahtomedi (12-5)
The Zephyrs suffered a 4 goal loss in Hermantown but that is their sole Class A loss so until they play Breck in their 24th game of the season, there is still a decent argument for them being the #2 team. They have 3 good opponents, all on the road this week; can they win more than 1 game?
Tues 1/26 @ Cathedral, Thurs 1/28 @ Stillwater, Sat 1/30 @ Hill-Murray
5. [5] Hibbing (17-1)
The Bluejackets beat Denfeld, shut out Warroad and scored 2 late goals to beat TRF by 1; it would've been have for them to have a better week. This week they travel to St Cloud to take on Apollo for their shot at rising up the rankings.
Tues 1/26 vs Proctor, 1/28 vs International Falls, 1/29 @ Apollo
6. [9] Thief River Falls (14-5)
The Prowlers finished putting themselves atop the section, but couldn't keep it going with a win in Hibbing. With only section 8 teams left on their schedule, there isn't much left for them to prove. They'll probably need a Bemidji win to have a chance of a 3 seed at state.
Tues 1/26 @ Lake of the Woods, Thurs 1/28 @ Crookston
7. [7] Delano (14-5)
The Tigers continue to win and still only have Class A losses to Hermantown and Breck, they are also the team to score the most goals on Breck this season. They lost to Holy Family at home by 1, can they pull off the upset the second time around?
Tues 1/26 vs Hutchinson, Thurs 1/28 @ Holy Family
8. [10] St Cloud Cathedral (13-5)
The Crusaders have 2 quality wins this week and 4 of their 5 losses are to the 1, 2, 3, and 7 ranked teams. Can they hold off Mahtomedi this week?
Tues 1/26 vs Mahtomedi, Fri @ Virginia
9. [12] Blake (10-9)
The Bears have close losses to a lot of good teams and do have a recent win over SPA. How will they do with Breck on the road?
Tues 1/26 @ Breck, Sat 1/30 vs Lourdes
10. [11] Greenway (18-3)
The Raiders have the early season stumble with Denfeld, close losses to Hibbing and Hermantown and 18 games that don't tell us a lot. They do tell us they are not shutting out lesser teams similar to Apollo but not much more.
Idle
11. [8] St Paul Academy (15-4)
The Spartans have 3 one goal losses and a shut out loss to Breck this season. Beating Breck and/or Blake the second time around would be good for them, but regardless of those results they'll probably end up with another shot at Mahtomedi to get to state.
Tues 1/26 @ Providence Academy, Thurs 1/28 @ Breck
12. [6] East Grand Forks (11-8-1)
While the Green Wave are on a 4 game losing streak, none of their recent losses tell us much outside of them probably being the worst team in the Grand Forks area. They shut out Warroad the first time around; doing it again would likely lock up the 2 seed in 8A.
Tues 1/26 vs Crookston, Fri 1/29 vs Warroad
13. [15] Little Falls (16-3)
The Fliers lost to Cathedral by 1 but could still technically end up with the top seed in the section, which would start with upsetting Apollo this week.
Tues 1/26 vs Apollo, Fri 1/29 @ Alexandria
14. [-] Warroad (8-13)
Despite their record, the Warriors have a lot of losses to good opponents. Beating Denfeld shows they're not a terrible team.
Tues 1/26 vs Roseau, Fri 1/29 @ East Grand Forks
15. [13] Duluth Denfeld (9-11-1)
The Hunters have lost their last 4 in a row, but 3 were to top 10 teams and the last was to Warroad. Without playing Greenway this season and Greenway's loss to Hermantown much better, Denfeld will probably end up with the 4 seed in a very deep section 7A.
Thurs 1/28 vs North Shore
Class A Rankings 1-24-2016
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
A couple things:
1. I don't think any case can be made for Mahtomedi at #2 after their beating at the hands of Hermantown. The score (6-2) and shots (43-23) really point to the Zephyrs not being a top 5 team. They do have a signature win over STA and a one-goal win over SPA, but other than that they do not have very impressive resume.
2. I would move Hibbing up to #4. They just beat the #6, #14, and #15 teams in your poll, Mahtomedi was decidedly beaten by Hermantown, yet you kept both teams at the same spots they were in last week. It is your opinion, but I don't know a rankings system on earth that wouldn't move Hibbing up a spot after the results of the past week.
3. How about a little love for Greenway? They played Hermantown much, much tougher than your #4, #6, #7, and #8 teams did, and while they do have the early hiccup to your #15 team, their only other losses are to #1 and #5. If your opinion of Hermantown is so high that you're not going to penalize Mahtomedi at all for losing to them soundly, then it would make sense to give Greenway an equally weighted reward for playing the Hawks so tough.
4. Apollo has a huge week, including 3 games in a row. It will be interesting to see how many shutouts they can pitch this week.
5. I'm not a big believer in Blake yet, so it will interesting to see how they do vs Breck.
1. I don't think any case can be made for Mahtomedi at #2 after their beating at the hands of Hermantown. The score (6-2) and shots (43-23) really point to the Zephyrs not being a top 5 team. They do have a signature win over STA and a one-goal win over SPA, but other than that they do not have very impressive resume.
2. I would move Hibbing up to #4. They just beat the #6, #14, and #15 teams in your poll, Mahtomedi was decidedly beaten by Hermantown, yet you kept both teams at the same spots they were in last week. It is your opinion, but I don't know a rankings system on earth that wouldn't move Hibbing up a spot after the results of the past week.
3. How about a little love for Greenway? They played Hermantown much, much tougher than your #4, #6, #7, and #8 teams did, and while they do have the early hiccup to your #15 team, their only other losses are to #1 and #5. If your opinion of Hermantown is so high that you're not going to penalize Mahtomedi at all for losing to them soundly, then it would make sense to give Greenway an equally weighted reward for playing the Hawks so tough.
4. Apollo has a huge week, including 3 games in a row. It will be interesting to see how many shutouts they can pitch this week.
5. I'm not a big believer in Blake yet, so it will interesting to see how they do vs Breck.
"You can't triple stamp a double stamp." -Harry Dunn
Class A Rankings
Great assessment of teams. I wouldn't change the order at all. Agree, Hermantown deserves the top spot until they stumble. Hermantown and Breck are the top two teams and could challenge for the state championship of Class AA. It would be a good year to have the champions of Class A and AA play for the overall state title! Strength of schedule has to be considered in the rankings, and you clearly recognize that. Appreciate the effort and look forward to the rankings each week.
-
HShockeywatcher
- Posts: 6848
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:21 pm
1. Losing to a team ranked above you doesn't make you decidedly worse or anything like that. The #4 team lost to the #1 team by 4. That doesn't make them suddenly not a top 5 team, that doesn't make sense. And while the margin isn't better than some, they score more goals (2) than any other Class A opponent has. They lost by the same score as New Prague so they should be ranked? Or they lost slightly worse than Delano so they should drop a lot? That's just not how it works. One thing I have always maintained, and will continue to, is that losing to a team above you doesn't mean you are worse than thought of.rainier wrote:A couple things:
1. I don't think any case can be made for Mahtomedi at #2 after their beating at the hands of Hermantown. The score (6-2) and shots (43-23) really point to the Zephyrs not being a top 5 team. They do have a signature win over STA and a one-goal win over SPA, but other than that they do not have very impressive resume.
2. I would move Hibbing up to #4. They just beat the #6, #14, and #15 teams in your poll, Mahtomedi was decidedly beaten by Hermantown, yet you kept both teams at the same spots they were in last week. It is your opinion, but I don't know a rankings system on earth that wouldn't move Hibbing up a spot after the results of the past week.
3. How about a little love for Greenway? They played Hermantown much, much tougher than your #4, #6, #7, and #8 teams did, and while they do have the early hiccup to your #15 team, their only other losses are to #1 and #5. If your opinion of Hermantown is so high that you're not going to penalize Mahtomedi at all for losing to them soundly, then it would make sense to give Greenway an equally weighted reward for playing the Hawks so tough.
2. Hibbing came from behind in the last two minutes to beat the #9 team from last week by 1. These teams are clearly very close. Hard to separate them by even 1 spot at this point considering the top 5 still has only 2 Class A losses and they are to teams above them in the top 5.
3. Mahtomedi doesn't have an impressive resume (despite the SPA, Blake, STA, STMA, Eastview wins) in your mind because they haven't beaten another top team (I'm assuming here) while you ignore their quality losses and somehow Greenway who, outside of their losses, has literally no resume needs some love? You can't use one set of logic to put down one team and then completely abandon that logic to bring up a team you like.
I suggested in the last couple weeks that it is entirely possible 7A has the top 3 teams in their section and there is actually still the schedule left for that to play out. Imagine Hibbing crushing Apollo and Greenway winning the rematch with Hibbing; I can't imagine a quality argument against the 7A teams in the top 3 (unless of course Mahtomedi runs the table between now and then).
Greenway's in a weird spot (as are the other 7-9 teams) where they lost by 1 to the top team and lost by 2 to Hibbing.
So how bout putting them at 7 ahead of Delano? Well Delano scored 7 on Breck, beat Cathedral and Blake and lost by 1 to Holy Family.
So how bout putting them at 8 ahead of Cathedral? Well, Cathedral had 3 goal losses to Delano and Apollo and beat one of the 3 teams who beat Greenway.
So that leave 9 ahead of Blake. I put Blake ahead where they are because of their recent surge, which contains wins over SPA and Denfeld (ya know, that team that beat Greenway) and a 1 goal loss to Cathedral.
I'd love to see a ranking before state that has the top 3 in 7A also the top 3 in state, but the bodies of work just aren't there for things to be much different right now.
Good arguments for sure. Here is mt take on how to rank teams now. What have you done for me lately. I dare anyone to take all the teams results since Christmas and tell me who is trending where. It's pretty simple. Many teams especially smaller enrollment class A have to deal more with coming off fall sports other than hockey vs the larger schools which get the higher percentage of elite players which is proving to be a joke if you look at Rapids and east. Pretty simple early season is just that. It doesn't matter what happens the first month but what has happened the last and how your playing going into playoffs. This is pretty proven. Ask east fans. With that logic no doubt 7A has three teams that have really separated from many other teams. Hermantown is what they are no discussion needed. Hibbing has taken on all comers and found ways to win when faced with adversity. Greenway has only one loss and it was to the best team in the state that just mopped up on Mahtomedi and greenway took them to the wire and was a pipe away from tying in the last minute. In fact who has held hermantown to 2 goals in a game this whole year? Short list. Fact is sec 7 is proving they are the best section. Compare the top 3 teams to every non section team they played. The record is very goddy. Just facts.
I also can see a way where Hibbing could slide to third n sec 7 if things play out like this. Greenway beats Hibbing and score does not matter, and wins out the remainder of there games and goes 22-3 Hibbing loses to greenway, hermantown, and a untimely slip to Virginia, and not sure it would matter much but a loss to Apollo. Say they end 20-5. Could happen but I doubt it. This would be a untimely loosing streak and what you do in your last 12 games has more weight at seeding than the first 12
-
karl(east)
- Posts: 6462
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
- Contact:
Some idle speculating as we look ahead to State, as it's much easier in A than in AA:
Hermantown, Breck, and Apollo--in that order--are in command of the top 3 seeds. If Hibbing wins 7A, they would be a top 3 seed also; where they fall will depend on if they beat Apollo this week. A win and they have a case for #1; a loss and they'll be #3 at best.
If Hermantown loses to Hibbing in the regular season but wins 7A, then it might get complicated, but I'd still give them the top seed unless Hibbing loses to Apollo.
TRF and Mahtomedi look to be the 4 and 5 seeds right now; I'd put them in that order personally, but it doesn't matter much. If EGF or SPA sneak through, they'd probably get seeded in this range also.
If Delano can knock off Breck and plays well these last few weeks, I'd put them in the top 3. Cathedral (or Little Falls), on the other hand, probably haven't done quite enough, and would go to #5 by winning 6A, and slide up the 4A/8A teams.
No real chance at a seed for the champs of 1A, 3A, and 5A. 1A has a big game between Northfield and Mankato West on Monday; if Northfield wins again, they're in command. 3A should still be Luverne's to lose--they are the most talented team in these three sections--but they really need to find a way to shore up that defense. Not sure if anyone can compete with Princeton in 5A, but also not sure that Princeton can compete with anyone at State.
Hermantown, Breck, and Apollo--in that order--are in command of the top 3 seeds. If Hibbing wins 7A, they would be a top 3 seed also; where they fall will depend on if they beat Apollo this week. A win and they have a case for #1; a loss and they'll be #3 at best.
If Hermantown loses to Hibbing in the regular season but wins 7A, then it might get complicated, but I'd still give them the top seed unless Hibbing loses to Apollo.
TRF and Mahtomedi look to be the 4 and 5 seeds right now; I'd put them in that order personally, but it doesn't matter much. If EGF or SPA sneak through, they'd probably get seeded in this range also.
If Delano can knock off Breck and plays well these last few weeks, I'd put them in the top 3. Cathedral (or Little Falls), on the other hand, probably haven't done quite enough, and would go to #5 by winning 6A, and slide up the 4A/8A teams.
No real chance at a seed for the champs of 1A, 3A, and 5A. 1A has a big game between Northfield and Mankato West on Monday; if Northfield wins again, they're in command. 3A should still be Luverne's to lose--they are the most talented team in these three sections--but they really need to find a way to shore up that defense. Not sure if anyone can compete with Princeton in 5A, but also not sure that Princeton can compete with anyone at State.
HShockeywatcher wrote:1. Losing to a team ranked above you doesn't make you decidedly worse or anything like that. The #4 team lost to the #1 team by 4. That doesn't make them suddenly not a top 5 team, that doesn't make sense. And while the margin isn't better than some, they score more goals (2) than any other Class A opponent has. They lost by the same score as New Prague so they should be ranked? Or they lost slightly worse than Delano so they should drop a lot? That's just not how it works. One thing I have always maintained, and will continue to, is that losing to a team above you doesn't mean you are worse than thought of.rainier wrote:A couple things:
1. I don't think any case can be made for Mahtomedi at #2 after their beating at the hands of Hermantown. The score (6-2) and shots (43-23) really point to the Zephyrs not being a top 5 team. They do have a signature win over STA and a one-goal win over SPA, but other than that they do not have very impressive resume.
2. I would move Hibbing up to #4. They just beat the #6, #14, and #15 teams in your poll, Mahtomedi was decidedly beaten by Hermantown, yet you kept both teams at the same spots they were in last week. It is your opinion, but I don't know a rankings system on earth that wouldn't move Hibbing up a spot after the results of the past week.
3. How about a little love for Greenway? They played Hermantown much, much tougher than your #4, #6, #7, and #8 teams did, and while they do have the early hiccup to your #15 team, their only other losses are to #1 and #5. If your opinion of Hermantown is so high that you're not going to penalize Mahtomedi at all for losing to them soundly, then it would make sense to give Greenway an equally weighted reward for playing the Hawks so tough.
It's your opinion, but I don't now any rankings in the universe where the #5 team beats three top 20 opponents in a week while the #4 team gets beaten handily by the #1, yet those two teams' rankings doesn't change. Using PageStat, Hibbing top five wins give an average ranking of 32, while Mahtomedi's give an average ranking of 35.6, so taking into account Mahtomedi's losses to the #'s 34, 41, and 43 teams, I'd certainly say Hibbing's resume is stronger thus far.
2. Hibbing came from behind in the last two minutes to beat the #9 team from last week by 1. These teams are clearly very close. Hard to separate them by even 1 spot at this point considering the top 5 still has only 2 Class A losses and they are to teams above them in the top 5.
Yes, it was a close game, but I thought Hibbing was the better team. They carried the play for 70% of that game and took over in the end when it mattered. And why would you say they lost to the "#9 team from last week" when you have TRF at #6 this week?
3. Mahtomedi doesn't have an impressive resume (despite the SPA, Blake, STA, STMA, Eastview wins) in your mind because they haven't beaten another top team (I'm assuming here) while you ignore their quality losses (I'll give you that a two goal loss to HM is a quality loss, but I have a hard time saying the 4 goal loss to Herm is a quality loss. And the Zephyrs' other losses are the the #34, #41 and #43 PageStat teams, hardly quality losses for what is the #28 team.) and somehow Greenway who, outside of their losses, has literally no resume needs some love? You can't use one set of logic to put down one team and then completely abandon that logic to bring up a team you like. I agree, Greenway does not have a signature win, but the comparative results vs Hermantown between the Raiders and Zephyrs strongly suggests that Greenway should be ranked closer to where Mahtomedi is.
I suggested in the last couple weeks that it is entirely possible 7A has the top 3 teams in their section and there is actually still the schedule left for that to play out. Imagine Hibbing crushing Apollo and Greenway winning the rematch with Hibbing; I can't imagine a quality argument against the 7A teams in the top 3 (unless of course Mahtomedi runs the table between now and then). I don't think anybody believes Hibbing and Greenway are better than Breck.
Greenway's in a weird spot (as are the other 7-9 teams) where they lost by 1 to the top team and lost by 2 to Hibbing.
So how bout putting them at 7 ahead of Delano? Well Delano scored 7 on Breck, beat Cathedral and Blake and lost by 1 to Holy Family.
So how bout putting them at 8 ahead of Cathedral? Well, Cathedral had 3 goal losses to Delano and Apollo and beat one of the 3 teams who beat Greenway.
So that leave 9 ahead of Blake. I put Blake ahead where they are because of their recent surge, which contains wins over SPA and Denfeld (ya know, that team that beat Greenway) and a 1 goal loss to Cathedral.
Fair enough, it is hard to put Greenway up much higher. I just thought that since Mahtomedi was not penalized one bit for losing 6-2 while getting outshot 2 to 1 in a game that was never in doubt, then you would apply the same logic to Greenway who was in it vs Herm until the very end in a 2-1 game where the shots were 27-19.
I'd love to see a ranking before state that has the top 3 in 7A also the top 3 in state, but the bodies of work just aren't there for things to be much different right now.[/quote
"You can't triple stamp a double stamp." -Harry Dunn
Maybe even more important. Tells me where hibbings signature loss that is a head scratcher? Hmmmm. Rapids a top class Aa team. That's it.
Compare that to the rest of class A
Then who's green ways? Hmmm. Denfeld in ot. Hibbing, herm. Hmmm
Compare that with the rest of class A.
Sec 7. Does not get the respect it has earned
Who wants to play Virginia right now? Hmmmmm. So 5 quality teams in this section. Not 3. All quality wins no matter the scores
Compare that to the rest of class A
Then who's green ways? Hmmm. Denfeld in ot. Hibbing, herm. Hmmm
Compare that with the rest of class A.
Sec 7. Does not get the respect it has earned
Who wants to play Virginia right now? Hmmmmm. So 5 quality teams in this section. Not 3. All quality wins no matter the scores
You're starting to sound like the guys (or maybe it was A guy) from 3A over the last couple of years. 7A doesn't get the respect it deserves? Look at Pagestat or MyHockey or LPH, etc. and you'll see 7A getting the respect it rightfully deserves. No more, no less.howardst wrote:Maybe even more important. Tells me where hibbings signature loss that is a head scratcher? Hmmmm. Rapids a top class Aa team. That's it.
Compare that to the rest of class A
Then who's green ways? Hmmm. Denfeld in ot. Hibbing, herm. Hmmm
Compare that with the rest of class A.
Sec 7. Does not get the respect it has earned
Who wants to play Virginia right now? Hmmmmm. So 5 quality teams in this section. Not 3. All quality wins no matter the scores
But please, try to use a little bit of perspective. Did you really ask who wants to play Virginia? Citing a team with a losing record against average competition as to how strong 7A is and "quality?" Maybe you'd like to tell us how strong North Shore is? (Which by the way is having a nice season, but you have to take strength of schedule into account. That's why they were ranked in the 90s in the last PageStat ranking.)
Here's the bottom line. ONE team will come out of 7A. One 7A team is the favorite to win state. Another is a team that might be able to compete for a title. Another team would be a Cinderella story. No other team from 7A has a chance. Period.
Nearly the same story can be told of other sections like 2A, 4A and 6A.
Do I think 7A might be the strongest section this year? Yes, it may be. That doesn't change the fact that all but one team from each section will be sitting at home come the state tourney.
In my opinion, the top three teams are Hermantown, Breck, and Apollo. Everyone else is fighting an uphill battle against those three come playoff time.
Well I'm not overzealous. I just believe some of the rankings are skewed in favor of metro teams. Not every season does the same section have the most depth. That tends to move on a yearly basis. I would say herm is still the fav and as of today Hibbing has a slight edge on greenway but we will see what happens over the next 2 weeks. Yes only one team can go but I also believe if you made a list of teams that could upset herm it would go something like this
Breck - def the next best team in the state class A
Hibbing
St. Cloud Apollo
Greenway ( based on being one of what3 teams A or AA to hold herm to 2 goals and has already proven they match up pretty well )
Then who? Mahtomedi? Ummm nope
Breck - def the next best team in the state class A
Hibbing
St. Cloud Apollo
Greenway ( based on being one of what3 teams A or AA to hold herm to 2 goals and has already proven they match up pretty well )
Then who? Mahtomedi? Ummm nope
HSHW you put so much emphasis in the assumption that your previous rankings are correct. It tells you that your previous rankings are incorrect barring any flukes.
As of right now Hibbing is the number 4 team based simply on the idea, that they would beat any single A team other than the top 3.
How do I know this? I don't. But based on several things, it is my opinion. And my opinion is based on watching, talking and years of first hand experience.
So when you say as an example the number 5 team beat the number 7 team you are wrong. All that means at that particular point in time one team is better than the other.
As of right now Hibbing is the number 4 team based simply on the idea, that they would beat any single A team other than the top 3.
How do I know this? I don't. But based on several things, it is my opinion. And my opinion is based on watching, talking and years of first hand experience.
So when you say as an example the number 5 team beat the number 7 team you are wrong. All that means at that particular point in time one team is better than the other.
-
HShockeywatcher
- Posts: 6848
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:21 pm
It's been interesting to me all season that Hermantown started the year ranked ahead of Breck and, with very little standing out from either schedule comparatively, that they've been definitely the top team the majority of the season.karl(east) wrote:Hermantown, Breck, and Apollo--in that order--are in command of the top 3 seeds. If Hibbing wins 7A, they would be a top 3 seed also; where they fall will depend on if they beat Apollo this week. A win and they have a case for #1; a loss and they'll be #3 at best.
On paper, Breck was definitely the better team coming into the year. They graduated 3 seniors (their goalie and 7th and 9th points scorers from last year, who scored 9% of their goals) while Hermantown graduated 8 seniors (their 1st, 2nd, 5th, 7th, 10th, 11th, 15th and 19th point scorers, who scored 54% of their goals).
If Mahtomedi beats Breck, then it gets a lot easier, but if Breck beats Mahtomdei too, the case can really be made for either team.
PageStat has had Breck at #1 all that I remember of the season.
It would help to understand that it has nothing directly to do with geography and everything to do with schedule. (Yes, I understand indirectly there are travel costs, but that's unrelated to ranking) I've brought up the U of Houston this year and in past years we've seen Utah, Boise St and others where the team is actually much better than their record, and we find out when they play their bowl game, but during the season they didn't play many good opponents or had a fluke game and they were ranked lower. The same thing happens in high school sports when you don't have many quality opponents on your schedule. It isn't actually saying anything negative about them, just that you don't have anything more to go off.howardst wrote:I just believe some of the rankings are skewed in favor of metro teams.
Additionally, I find it hard to say this is a metro vs non-metro thing as only 4 of the 15 in my ranking are metro teams...
Hsw I guess I disagree. Brecks losses this season are not even close to the level of hermantowns. Break lost two at the Schwann cup that are very iffy losses. Hermantowns body of work is clearly one. The problem is your speculating by what was lost from last year. Heck hockey is a team game and what you can't measure is chemistry. I guess the point is throw out all your rankings and do a fresh one based solely on what has happened since Christmas. That my friend will put a end to all of it. No ranking on last season. Let the boys get the year started and base it from Christmas on. Even the bcs throws out 25% before making a meaningful ranking. Last year means nothing. Ask egf as a negative side and Hibbing as a positive one. Break is very good but surely not with hermantown as far as rankings go. Could they beat them. Yup. No question. That's why we play the games instead of just rank a winner. Even ncaa got it right. Heck would Ohio st have won the ship last year based on rankings. Nope. But Alabama was the best ranked team and should have been
Here are the numbers since Christmas. Looking at these results give me a ranking.
Hermantown 9-1 only loss to Bemidji
Hibbing 8-1 only loss to Grand Rapids
St Appolo 8-1 only loss to Breck (3-2)
Breck 6-2 Lost to Rosemount and St Michael
TRF 8-2 lost to Hibbing and Moorhead
EGF 4-4 lost to TRF, Bemidji, GF Central, and GF Red River
Greenway 9-1 only loss is to Hermantown (2-1)
Mahtomedi 6-3 losses to Hermantown (6-1), Tartan, Rosemount
Delano 7-3 losses to Hermantown (5-2), Holy Family, Bemidji
Hermantown 9-1 only loss to Bemidji
Hibbing 8-1 only loss to Grand Rapids
St Appolo 8-1 only loss to Breck (3-2)
Breck 6-2 Lost to Rosemount and St Michael
TRF 8-2 lost to Hibbing and Moorhead
EGF 4-4 lost to TRF, Bemidji, GF Central, and GF Red River
Greenway 9-1 only loss is to Hermantown (2-1)
Mahtomedi 6-3 losses to Hermantown (6-1), Tartan, Rosemount
Delano 7-3 losses to Hermantown (5-2), Holy Family, Bemidji
-
Shortshift
- Posts: 76
- Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:01 am
HSHW... I think he wants you to do this...
1. [1] Hermantown (16-2-1)
The Hawks continue to win as they are 8-0 against Class A teams and just coming off their most important win of the season. With 2 more potentially challenging opponents on their schedule, neither of them are this week.
Tues 1/26 @ Virginia, Thurs 1/28 vs Cloquet
2. [5] Hibbing (17-1)
The Bluejackets beat Denfeld, shut out Warroad and scored 2 late goals to beat TRF by 1; it would've been have for them to have a better week. This week they travel to St Cloud to take on Apollo for their shot at rising up the rankings.
Tues 1/26 vs Proctor, 1/28 vs International Falls, 1/29 @ Apollo
3. [11] Greenway (18-3)
The Raiders have the early season stumble with Denfeld, close losses to Hibbing and Hermantown and 18 games that don't tell us a lot. They do tell us they are not shutting out lesser teams similar to Apollo but not much more.
Idle
4. [2] Breck (13-3)
Like Hermantown, the Mustangs have actually played quite a few AA teams as they too are 8-0 against Class A teams. The things that separates them from the Hawks, however, are conjecture and their losses. Winning out won't get them a 1 seed at state unless Hermantown stumbles.
Tues 1/26 vs Blake, Thurs 1/28 vs St Paul Academy
5. [3] St Cloud Apollo (15-2)
The Eagles are 9-1 in their last 10 games, with an OT loss to Breck and 8 shut outs in that time. Of their 4 games this week, their one home game is against Hibbing; can their defense hold off the Bluejackets?
Tues 1/26 @ Little Falls, Thurs 1/28 @ St Cloud Tech, Fri 1/29 vs Hibbing, Sat 1/30 @ Virginia
6. [4] Mahtomedi (12-5)
The Zephyrs suffered a 4 goal loss in Hermantown but that is their sole Class A loss so until they play Breck in their 24th game of the season, there is still a decent argument for them being the #2 team. They have 3 good opponents, all on the road this week; can they win more than 1 game?
Tues 1/26 @ Cathedral, Thurs 1/28 @ Stillwater, Sat 1/30 @ Hill-Murray
7. [9] Thief River Falls (14-5)
The Prowlers finished putting themselves atop the section, but couldn't keep it going with a win in Hibbing. With only section 8 teams left on their schedule, there isn't much left for them to prove. They'll probably need a Bemidji win to have a chance of a 3 seed at state.
Tues 1/26 @ Lake of the Woods, Thurs 1/28 @ Crookston
8. [7] Delano (14-5)
The Tigers continue to win and still only have Class A losses to Hermantown and Breck, they are also the team to score the most goals on Breck this season. They lost to Holy Family at home by 1, can they pull off the upset the second time around?
Tues 1/26 vs Hutchinson, Thurs 1/28 @ Holy Family
9. [10] St Cloud Cathedral (13-5)
The Crusaders have 2 quality wins this week and 4 of their 5 losses are to the 1, 2, 3, and 7 ranked teams. Can they hold off Mahtomedi this week?
Tues 1/26 vs Mahtomedi, Fri @ Virginia
10. [12] Blake (10-9)
The Bears have close losses to a lot of good teams and do have a recent win over SPA. How will they do with Breck on the road?
Tues 1/26 @ Breck, Sat 1/30 vs Lourdes
11. [8] St Paul Academy (15-4)
The Spartans have 3 one goal losses and a shut out loss to Breck this season. Beating Breck and/or Blake the second time around would be good for them, but regardless of those results they'll probably end up with another shot at Mahtomedi to get to state.
Tues 1/26 @ Providence Academy, Thurs 1/28 @ Breck
12. [6] East Grand Forks (11-8-1)
While the Green Wave are on a 4 game losing streak, none of their recent losses tell us much outside of them probably being the worst team in the Grand Forks area. They shut out Warroad the first time around; doing it again would likely lock up the 2 seed in 8A.
Tues 1/26 vs Crookston, Fri 1/29 vs Warroad
13. [15] Little Falls (16-3)
The Fliers lost to Cathedral by 1 but could still technically end up with the top seed in the section, which would start with upsetting Apollo this week.
Tues 1/26 vs Apollo, Fri 1/29 @ Alexandria
14. [-] Warroad (8-13)
Despite their record, the Warriors have a lot of losses to good opponents. Beating Denfeld shows they're not a terrible team.
Tues 1/26 vs Roseau, Fri 1/29 @ East Grand Forks
15. [13] Duluth Denfeld (9-11-1)
The Hunters have lost their last 4 in a row, but 3 were to top 10 teams and the last was to Warroad. Without playing Greenway this season and Greenway's loss to Hermantown much better, Denfeld will probably end up with the 4 seed in a very deep section 7A.
Thurs 1/28 vs North Shore
Although you might want to switch 2 and 3!!! Now top 3 7A teams are where they belong!!! And 7A can bring home the runner up hardware again!
1. [1] Hermantown (16-2-1)
The Hawks continue to win as they are 8-0 against Class A teams and just coming off their most important win of the season. With 2 more potentially challenging opponents on their schedule, neither of them are this week.
Tues 1/26 @ Virginia, Thurs 1/28 vs Cloquet
2. [5] Hibbing (17-1)
The Bluejackets beat Denfeld, shut out Warroad and scored 2 late goals to beat TRF by 1; it would've been have for them to have a better week. This week they travel to St Cloud to take on Apollo for their shot at rising up the rankings.
Tues 1/26 vs Proctor, 1/28 vs International Falls, 1/29 @ Apollo
3. [11] Greenway (18-3)
The Raiders have the early season stumble with Denfeld, close losses to Hibbing and Hermantown and 18 games that don't tell us a lot. They do tell us they are not shutting out lesser teams similar to Apollo but not much more.
Idle
4. [2] Breck (13-3)
Like Hermantown, the Mustangs have actually played quite a few AA teams as they too are 8-0 against Class A teams. The things that separates them from the Hawks, however, are conjecture and their losses. Winning out won't get them a 1 seed at state unless Hermantown stumbles.
Tues 1/26 vs Blake, Thurs 1/28 vs St Paul Academy
5. [3] St Cloud Apollo (15-2)
The Eagles are 9-1 in their last 10 games, with an OT loss to Breck and 8 shut outs in that time. Of their 4 games this week, their one home game is against Hibbing; can their defense hold off the Bluejackets?
Tues 1/26 @ Little Falls, Thurs 1/28 @ St Cloud Tech, Fri 1/29 vs Hibbing, Sat 1/30 @ Virginia
6. [4] Mahtomedi (12-5)
The Zephyrs suffered a 4 goal loss in Hermantown but that is their sole Class A loss so until they play Breck in their 24th game of the season, there is still a decent argument for them being the #2 team. They have 3 good opponents, all on the road this week; can they win more than 1 game?
Tues 1/26 @ Cathedral, Thurs 1/28 @ Stillwater, Sat 1/30 @ Hill-Murray
7. [9] Thief River Falls (14-5)
The Prowlers finished putting themselves atop the section, but couldn't keep it going with a win in Hibbing. With only section 8 teams left on their schedule, there isn't much left for them to prove. They'll probably need a Bemidji win to have a chance of a 3 seed at state.
Tues 1/26 @ Lake of the Woods, Thurs 1/28 @ Crookston
8. [7] Delano (14-5)
The Tigers continue to win and still only have Class A losses to Hermantown and Breck, they are also the team to score the most goals on Breck this season. They lost to Holy Family at home by 1, can they pull off the upset the second time around?
Tues 1/26 vs Hutchinson, Thurs 1/28 @ Holy Family
9. [10] St Cloud Cathedral (13-5)
The Crusaders have 2 quality wins this week and 4 of their 5 losses are to the 1, 2, 3, and 7 ranked teams. Can they hold off Mahtomedi this week?
Tues 1/26 vs Mahtomedi, Fri @ Virginia
10. [12] Blake (10-9)
The Bears have close losses to a lot of good teams and do have a recent win over SPA. How will they do with Breck on the road?
Tues 1/26 @ Breck, Sat 1/30 vs Lourdes
11. [8] St Paul Academy (15-4)
The Spartans have 3 one goal losses and a shut out loss to Breck this season. Beating Breck and/or Blake the second time around would be good for them, but regardless of those results they'll probably end up with another shot at Mahtomedi to get to state.
Tues 1/26 @ Providence Academy, Thurs 1/28 @ Breck
12. [6] East Grand Forks (11-8-1)
While the Green Wave are on a 4 game losing streak, none of their recent losses tell us much outside of them probably being the worst team in the Grand Forks area. They shut out Warroad the first time around; doing it again would likely lock up the 2 seed in 8A.
Tues 1/26 vs Crookston, Fri 1/29 vs Warroad
13. [15] Little Falls (16-3)
The Fliers lost to Cathedral by 1 but could still technically end up with the top seed in the section, which would start with upsetting Apollo this week.
Tues 1/26 vs Apollo, Fri 1/29 @ Alexandria
14. [-] Warroad (8-13)
Despite their record, the Warriors have a lot of losses to good opponents. Beating Denfeld shows they're not a terrible team.
Tues 1/26 vs Roseau, Fri 1/29 @ East Grand Forks
15. [13] Duluth Denfeld (9-11-1)
The Hunters have lost their last 4 in a row, but 3 were to top 10 teams and the last was to Warroad. Without playing Greenway this season and Greenway's loss to Hermantown much better, Denfeld will probably end up with the 4 seed in a very deep section 7A.
Thurs 1/28 vs North Shore
Although you might want to switch 2 and 3!!! Now top 3 7A teams are where they belong!!! And 7A can bring home the runner up hardware again!
-
karl(east)
- Posts: 6462
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
- Contact:
I don't doubt that Breck could be better, but I do disagree with this statement. It's only true if you take a very basic look at percentage of scoring returning and think this is the only way to judge who is "better." It ignores the starting point for the comparison (Hermantown was a top seed that narrowly lost a state championship game last year; Breck was a 4-seed that went out in the first round), the front-end talent of the players (Hermantown was much better represented in the Elite League), the quality of the players buried on JV or coming up from Bantams to replace all those departing goals (considerable, for Hermantown), goaltending (where Hermantown is--for once--very experienced and looking alright this year, whereas Breck lost a very good one), and positional changes (Hermantown's most talented forward, a surefire D-I player, was playing defense last year, depressing his point totals).HShockeywatcher wrote:On paper, Breck was definitely the better team coming into the year.
The reason people thought this was because they've seen Hermantown's talent and know it's real, not because they were just handing them something based on reputation. They still need to put it all together and prove they can win it, but I certainly don't think they've done anything to date (relative to the other Class A teams) to drive them from that top spot. (And I'm guessing you agree with that last bit, based on this ranking.)
These are my rankings. I also put the strength of schedule ranking from PageStat after each team.
1. Hermantown (20)
2. Breck (19)
3. Apollo (68 )
4. Hibbing (51)
5. Delano (41)
6. Thief River (36)
7. Greenway (85)
8. Mahtomedi (45)
9. Cathedral (59)
10. SPA (58 )
1. Hermantown (20)
2. Breck (19)
3. Apollo (68 )
4. Hibbing (51)
5. Delano (41)
6. Thief River (36)
7. Greenway (85)
8. Mahtomedi (45)
9. Cathedral (59)
10. SPA (58 )
"You can't triple stamp a double stamp." -Harry Dunn