The State of North American Midget Hockey

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lsqrank01
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:00 pm

The State of North American Midget Hockey

Post by lsqrank01 » Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:25 am

As part of a GIS research study investigating HS/Midget age hockey teams, college students performed a least squares adjustment of the North American 2014-15 game data. The data that was collected spanned 5,190 teams (US & CAN High School/Midget) ranging in ages from 18 to 15. Approximately 79,000 unique game scores were compiled providing 74,000 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the LSQR vertical network adjustment. Below are two charts (below) depicting the trend lines for various groupings or leagues. Minnesotans can rightly puff out their chests on this one because Minnesota based teams claimed 23 spots out of the top 52 teams, roughly 44% of North America's premier 1% (top 100 listed below). As far as ranking among solely interscholastic high school leagues, the MSHSL is by far and away the king of HS hockey bar none, where Massachusetts is a distance second. When compared with US & CAN 18U/Midget AAA teams, the MSHSL trended slightly lower overall than the top tier 1 leagues. So what team had the best score (aka highest elevation) .... drum roll ...
Edina Hornets HS from you guessed it, MINNESOTA. The 2015 State Champs, undefeated Lakeville North scored 2nd overall, Shattuck St.Mary's Prep ranking 3rd and Saint Thomas Academy 4th. Jah sure, u-betcha!

Code: Select all

LSQRANK State Tier Score                                           Team          LG  SEC       CLS     GP  (WW-LL-TT) percent
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     1  MN     HS  1000.6733                                      Edina      MnHSHL   2         AA     30  (26- 2- 2) 0.900  
     2  MN     HS  1000.0000                             LakevilleNorth      MnHSHL   1         AA     31  (31- 0- 0) 1.000  
     3  MN     PS   999.4962                         ShattuckStMaryPrep     USAPREP   1        USA     51  (30-11-10) 0.686  
     4  MN     HS   999.0922                         SaintThomasAcademy      MnHSHL   3         AA     32  (27- 5- 0) 0.844  
     5  GE     T1   998.9822                       MannheimJungadler19U      GER19U   3        19U      4  ( 2- 0- 2) 0.750  
     6  SK     T2   998.9722               SaskatoonRiverkingsMidget_AA      CANM2A   2         AA     38  (30- 4- 4) 0.842  
     7  MN     T1   998.9683                     TeamSE(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     25  (15- 2- 8) 0.760  
     8  MN     HS   998.7186                                 Hermantown      MnHSHL   7          A     31  (28- 3- 0) 0.903  
     9  MN     HS   998.6348                                   ElkRiver      MnHSHL   7         AA     28  (22- 5- 1) 0.804  
    10  CT     T1   998.4650              ConnecticutWolfPack(N)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     40  (27- 7- 6) 0.750  
    11  MN     T1   998.3556                      ShattuckStMary16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     58  (37-11-10) 0.724  
    12  OH     T1   998.3444                     OhioBlueJackets18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     69  (56-13- 0) 0.812  
    13  MN     HS   998.3293                                EdenPrairie      MnHSHL   6         AA     30  (19-11- 0) 0.633  
    14  MA     HS   998.2423                       SpringfieldCathedral      MAHSHL   1         D1     25  (22- 1- 2) 0.920  
    15  IN     PS   998.2356                          CulverAcademyPrep     USAPREP   1        USA     47  (32- 9- 6) 0.745  
    16  CT     T1   998.1773                  SelectsAcademy@SKS18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     76  (53-11-12) 0.776  
    17  MI     T1   998.0809                          Honeybaked16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     70  (57-11- 2) 0.829  
    18  MN     T1   997.9703                     TeamNE(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     27  (13- 8- 6) 0.593  
    19  NJ     T1   997.9348                NorthJerseyAvalanche18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     72  (60-10- 2) 0.847  
    20  MA     T1   997.9294                   SpringfieldRifles18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     33  (23- 4- 6) 0.788  
    21  MN     HS   997.9186                                    Wayzata      MnHSHL   6         AA     27  (12-12- 3) 0.500  
    22  MN     HS   997.8184                                 HillMurray      MnHSHL   4         AA     30  (21- 9- 0) 0.700  
    23  MN     T1   997.8083                     TeamSW(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     24  (14- 8- 2) 0.625  
    24  CO     T1   997.7903      ColoradoThunderbirds(National)16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     70  (65- 5- 0) 0.929  
    25  MN     HS   997.7774                                        BSM      MnHSHL   6         AA     27  (15-10- 2) 0.593  
    26  MA     PS   997.7714                             HillsideSchool      USANEP   3        NEP     25  (21- 4- 0) 0.840  
    27  NE     T1   997.7184               OmahaAAAHockey(Elite)16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     82  (61-16- 5) 0.774  
    28  MN     HS   997.7176                                  PriorLake      MnHSHL   2         AA     27  (17- 9- 1) 0.648  
    29  IL     T1   997.6788                      ChicagoMission18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     73  (45-18-10) 0.685  
    30  MI     T1   997.6436                        VictoryHonda18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     64  (40-22- 2) 0.641  
    31  MA     PS   997.6373                             CushingAcademy      USANEP   3        NEP     40  (26- 5- 9) 0.762  
    32  MN     HS   997.6283                                 HolyFamily      MnHSHL   6         AA     26  (17- 7- 2) 0.692  
    33  MA     T1   997.5634                      CapeCodWhalers18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     44  (31- 7- 6) 0.773  
    34  MN     T1   997.5175                     TeamNW(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     27  ( 9-10- 8) 0.481  
    35  MN     HS   997.4714                                     Blaine      MnHSHL   5         AA     31  (23- 7- 1) 0.758  
    36  MN     HS   997.4053                                 Minnetonka      MnHSHL   6         AA     28  (14-12- 2) 0.536  
    37  MN     HS   997.3822                              WhiteBearLake      MnHSHL   4         AA     27  (21- 6- 0) 0.778  
    38  MA     T1   997.3315                BostonJrBruins(MASS)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     30  (21- 9- 0) 0.700  
    39  MN     HS   997.3212                                  Mahtomedi      MnHSHL   4          A     31  (26- 3- 2) 0.871  
    40  MI     T1   997.2477                           BelleTire18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     64  (43-19- 2) 0.688  
    41  NY     T1   997.2258                       BuffaloSaints18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     30  (24- 6- 0) 0.800  
    42  MN     HS   997.2214                                 Burnsville      MnHSHL   2         AA     29  (16-11- 2) 0.586  
    43  NY     T1   997.2167                     BuffaloJrSabres18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     74  (55-17- 2) 0.757  
    44  MO     T1   997.1978                        StLouisBlues18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     57  (33-18- 6) 0.632  
    45  BC     PS   997.1924                      YaleHockeyAcademyPrep     CANPREP   2        CAN     27  (24- 3- 0) 0.889  
    46  ON     PS   997.1373                       StAndrewsCollegePrep     CANPREP   2        CAN     62  (46- 6-10) 0.823  
    47  AB     T1   997.0877                 CalgaryBuffaloesMidget_AAA      ABCM3A   3        AAA     51  (30-11-10) 0.686  
    48  CT     PS   997.0621                            SalisburySchool      USANEP   3        NEP     31  (22- 5- 4) 0.774  
    49  TX     T1   997.0520                    DallasStarsElite18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     56  (33-21- 2) 0.607  
    50  PA     T1   997.0474                PhiladelphiaJrFlyers18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     63  (40-23- 0) 0.635  
    51  NJ     T1   997.0361                        JerseyHitmen18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     67  (44-19- 4) 0.687  
    52  MN     HS   997.0165                                      Breck      MnHSHL   2          A     31  (22- 9- 0) 0.710  
    53  NH     PS   997.0110                      PhillipsAcademyExeter      USANEP   3        NEP     34  (24- 6- 4) 0.765  
    54  CT     T1   996.9814       ConnecticutWolfPack(National)16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     37  (28- 7- 2) 0.784  
    55  IL     T1   996.9601                        TeamIllinois18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     58  (33-21- 4) 0.603  
    56  CT     PS   996.9575                              LoomisChaffee      USANEP   3        NEP     29  (22- 5- 2) 0.793  
    57  MN     HS   996.9504                             Farmington(MN)      MnHSHL   1         AA     28  (19- 8- 1) 0.696  
    58  MN     HS   996.9172                             EastGrandForks      MnHSHL   8          A     30  (26- 4- 0) 0.867  
    59  MI     T1   996.9172                          Honeybaked18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     66  (38-20- 8) 0.636  
    60  MA     HS   996.9135                             MaldenCatholic      MAHSHL   1         D1     23  (19- 2- 2) 0.870  
    61  SK     T1   996.9012               ReginaPatCanadiansMidget_AAA      SKCM3A   3        AAA     77  (56-17- 4) 0.753  
    62  PA     T1   996.8967             PittsburghPenguinsElite18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     70  (40-26- 4) 0.600  
    63  MI     T1   996.8914                       LittleCaesars18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     70  (43-25- 2) 0.629  
    64  IL     T1   996.8864                      ChicagoMission16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     75  (47-20- 8) 0.680  
    65  CT     T1   996.8565                  MidFairfieldChiefs18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     26  ( 7- 9-10) 0.462  
    66  MN     HS   996.8438                                    Bemidji      MnHSHL   8         AA     30  (23- 5- 2) 0.800  
    67  WI     T1   996.8405                       TeamWisconsin18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     26  (12-12- 2) 0.500  
    68  AB     T1   996.8040              StrathmoreUFABisonsMidget_AAA      ABCM3A   3        AAA     66  (36-20-10) 0.621  
    69  MA     T1   996.7754                  BostonLittleBruins18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     26  (16- 8- 2) 0.654  
    70  MN     T1   996.7603                     MinnesotaBlades18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     29  (16- 7- 6) 0.655  
    71  CT     T1   996.7560                      StamfordSharks18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     23  (10- 9- 4) 0.522  
    72  WI     T1   996.7458                       TeamWisconsin16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     46  (26-17- 3) 0.598  
    73  QC     T1   996.7437                 LevisCommandeursMidget_AAA      LHQM3A   3        AAA     60  (44-16- 0) 0.733  
    74  MN     HS   996.6825                             LakevilleSouth      MnHSHL   1         AA     27  (14-11- 2) 0.556  
    75  NH     PS   996.6525                        KimballUnionAcademy      USANEP   3        NEP     36  (26- 8- 2) 0.750  
    76  MI     T1   996.6350                  OaklandJrGrizzlies18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     52  (28-22- 2) 0.558  
    77  MN     HS   996.5778                         Cretin-Durham-Hall      MnHSHL   3         AA     27  (16- 7- 4) 0.667  
    78  QC     T1   996.5767            ChateauguayGrenadiersMidget_AAA      LHQM3A   3        AAA     72  (46-26- 0) 0.639  
    79  MN     T1   996.5670                     MinnesotaBlades16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     29  (21- 7- 1) 0.741  
    80  SK     T2   996.5529                 SaskatoonIcehawksMidget_AA      CANM2A   2         AA     36  (15-15- 6) 0.500  
    81  MA     T1   996.5233                BostonJrBruins(Anderson)19U      USA19U   3        19U     19  ( 6- 7- 6) 0.474  
    82  ON     T1   996.5228                 TorontoNationalsMidget_AAA      ONCM3A   3        AAA     84  (60-10-14) 0.798  
    83  CT     PS   996.5128                                    Gunnery      USANEP   3        NEP     34  (23- 7- 4) 0.735  
    84  MI     T1   996.4845                        VictoryHonda16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     65  (43-22- 0) 0.662  
    85  ND     T1   996.4653            TeamGreatPlains(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     30  ( 3-13-14) 0.333  
    86  WI     T1   996.4525                 MilwaukeeJrAdmirals16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     60  (31-18-11) 0.608  
    87  NJ     T1   996.4335                   NewJerseyJrTitans18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     58  (37-19- 2) 0.655  
    88  ON     HS   996.4075                                     Lessor      EOHSHL   1        CAN     18  (17- 1- 0) 0.944  
    89  MN     T1   996.4069                  TeamNorth(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     27  ( 3-14-10) 0.296  
    90  NJ     T1   996.3948                         TeamComcast18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     68  (40-26- 2) 0.603  
    91  MN     HS   996.3871                                 DuluthEast      MnHSHL   7         AA     31  (16-11- 4) 0.581  
    92  MA     PS   996.3846                      Noble&GreenoughSchool      USANEP   3        NEP     28  (21- 5- 2) 0.786  
    93  MB     T1   996.3796                     WinnipegWildMidget_AAA      MBCM3A   3        AAA     53  (41-12- 0) 0.774  
    94  ND     T1   996.3228                          THASelects18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     19  (13- 6- 0) 0.684  
    95  NY     T1   996.3173                     BuffaloJrSabres16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     79  (51-17-11) 0.715  
    96  SK     T1   996.2783                   TisdaleTrojansMidget_AAA      SKCM3A   3        AAA     56  (40-16- 0) 0.714  
    97  MN     HS   996.2716                                     Delano      MnHSHL   2          A     28  (23- 5- 0) 0.821  
    98  AB     T1   996.2608                      EdmontonCACMidget_AAA      ABCM3A   3        AAA     55  (30-17- 8) 0.618  
    99  QC     T1   996.2446   CollegeCharlesLemoyneRiverainsMidget_AAA      LHQM3A   3        AAA     64  (41-23- 0) 0.641  
   100  MI     T1   996.2303                   MichiganNationals16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     74  (38-19-17) 0.628  
   101  MN     HS   996.2301                                GrandRapids      MnHSHL   7         AA     27  (14-11- 2) 0.556  
   102  MN     HS   996.1957                                   Moorhead      MnHSHL   8         AA     28  (17- 9- 2) 0.643  
   103  MA     PS   996.1944                               DexterSchool      USANEP   3        NEP     37  (20- 7-10) 0.676  
   104  ON     T1   996.1922                   TorontoJrCanadians99_AAA    ONT99AAA   3        AAA     87  (60-17-10) 0.747  
   105  MN     HS   996.1861                                    Hopkins      MnHSHL   6         AA     26  (12-12- 2) 0.500  
   106  MN     HS   996.1845                                 MapleGrove      MnHSHL   5         AA     27  (13-14- 0) 0.481
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NotMinnesotan
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:49 am

Post by NotMinnesotan » Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:29 am

Any list that has the second place single A school ahead of the National Champs for U18 Midgets is absurd and doesn't deserve to be posted. You could say, look at this group of numbers did with an order of teams, but to try to justify how great Minnesota High School Hockey is by it seems like a stretch.
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Jeffy95
Posts: 891
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:45 am

Re: The State of North American Midget Hockey

Post by Jeffy95 » Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:00 am

lsqrank01 wrote:As part of a GIS research study investigating HS/Midget age hockey teams, college students performed a least squares adjustment of the North American 2014-15 game data. The data that was collected spanned 5,190 teams (US & CAN High School/Midget) ranging in ages from 18 to 15. Approximately 79,000 unique game scores were compiled providing 74,000 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the LSQR vertical network adjustment. Below are two charts (below) depicting the trend lines for various groupings or leagues. Minnesotans can rightly puff out their chests on this one because Minnesota based teams claimed 23 spots out of the top 52 teams, roughly 44% of North America's premier 1% (top 100 listed below). As far as ranking among solely interscholastic high school leagues, the MSHSL is by far and away the king of HS hockey bar none, where Massachusetts is a distance second. When compared with US & CAN 18U/Midget AAA teams, the MSHSL trended slightly lower overall than the top tier 1 leagues. So what team had the best score (aka highest elevation) .... drum roll ...
Edina Hornets HS from you guessed it, MINNESOTA. The 2015 State Champs, undefeated Lakeville North scored 2nd overall, Shattuck St.Mary's Prep ranking 3rd and Saint Thomas Academy 4th. Jah sure, u-betcha!

Code: Select all

LSQRANK State Tier Score                                           Team          LG  SEC       CLS     GP  (WW-LL-TT) percent
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     1  MN     HS  1000.6733                                      Edina      MnHSHL   2         AA     30  (26- 2- 2) 0.900  
     2  MN     HS  1000.0000                             LakevilleNorth      MnHSHL   1         AA     31  (31- 0- 0) 1.000  
     3  MN     PS   999.4962                         ShattuckStMaryPrep     USAPREP   1        USA     51  (30-11-10) 0.686  
     4  MN     HS   999.0922                         SaintThomasAcademy      MnHSHL   3         AA     32  (27- 5- 0) 0.844  
     5  GE     T1   998.9822                       MannheimJungadler19U      GER19U   3        19U      4  ( 2- 0- 2) 0.750  
     6  SK     T2   998.9722               SaskatoonRiverkingsMidget_AA      CANM2A   2         AA     38  (30- 4- 4) 0.842  
     7  MN     T1   998.9683                     TeamSE(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     25  (15- 2- 8) 0.760  
     8  MN     HS   998.7186                                 Hermantown      MnHSHL   7          A     31  (28- 3- 0) 0.903  
     9  MN     HS   998.6348                                   ElkRiver      MnHSHL   7         AA     28  (22- 5- 1) 0.804  
    10  CT     T1   998.4650              ConnecticutWolfPack(N)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     40  (27- 7- 6) 0.750  
    11  MN     T1   998.3556                      ShattuckStMary16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     58  (37-11-10) 0.724  
    12  OH     T1   998.3444                     OhioBlueJackets18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     69  (56-13- 0) 0.812  
    13  MN     HS   998.3293                                EdenPrairie      MnHSHL   6         AA     30  (19-11- 0) 0.633  
    14  MA     HS   998.2423                       SpringfieldCathedral      MAHSHL   1         D1     25  (22- 1- 2) 0.920  
    15  IN     PS   998.2356                          CulverAcademyPrep     USAPREP   1        USA     47  (32- 9- 6) 0.745  
    16  CT     T1   998.1773                  SelectsAcademy@SKS18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     76  (53-11-12) 0.776  
    17  MI     T1   998.0809                          Honeybaked16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     70  (57-11- 2) 0.829  
    18  MN     T1   997.9703                     TeamNE(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     27  (13- 8- 6) 0.593  
    19  NJ     T1   997.9348                NorthJerseyAvalanche18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     72  (60-10- 2) 0.847  
    20  MA     T1   997.9294                   SpringfieldRifles18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     33  (23- 4- 6) 0.788  
    21  MN     HS   997.9186                                    Wayzata      MnHSHL   6         AA     27  (12-12- 3) 0.500  
    22  MN     HS   997.8184                                 HillMurray      MnHSHL   4         AA     30  (21- 9- 0) 0.700  
    23  MN     T1   997.8083                     TeamSW(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     24  (14- 8- 2) 0.625  
    24  CO     T1   997.7903      ColoradoThunderbirds(National)16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     70  (65- 5- 0) 0.929  
    25  MN     HS   997.7774                                        BSM      MnHSHL   6         AA     27  (15-10- 2) 0.593  
    26  MA     PS   997.7714                             HillsideSchool      USANEP   3        NEP     25  (21- 4- 0) 0.840  
    27  NE     T1   997.7184               OmahaAAAHockey(Elite)16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     82  (61-16- 5) 0.774  
    28  MN     HS   997.7176                                  PriorLake      MnHSHL   2         AA     27  (17- 9- 1) 0.648  
    29  IL     T1   997.6788                      ChicagoMission18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     73  (45-18-10) 0.685  
    30  MI     T1   997.6436                        VictoryHonda18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     64  (40-22- 2) 0.641  
    31  MA     PS   997.6373                             CushingAcademy      USANEP   3        NEP     40  (26- 5- 9) 0.762  
    32  MN     HS   997.6283                                 HolyFamily      MnHSHL   6         AA     26  (17- 7- 2) 0.692  
    33  MA     T1   997.5634                      CapeCodWhalers18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     44  (31- 7- 6) 0.773  
    34  MN     T1   997.5175                     TeamNW(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     27  ( 9-10- 8) 0.481  
    35  MN     HS   997.4714                                     Blaine      MnHSHL   5         AA     31  (23- 7- 1) 0.758  
    36  MN     HS   997.4053                                 Minnetonka      MnHSHL   6         AA     28  (14-12- 2) 0.536  
    37  MN     HS   997.3822                              WhiteBearLake      MnHSHL   4         AA     27  (21- 6- 0) 0.778  
    38  MA     T1   997.3315                BostonJrBruins(MASS)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     30  (21- 9- 0) 0.700  
    39  MN     HS   997.3212                                  Mahtomedi      MnHSHL   4          A     31  (26- 3- 2) 0.871  
    40  MI     T1   997.2477                           BelleTire18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     64  (43-19- 2) 0.688  
    41  NY     T1   997.2258                       BuffaloSaints18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     30  (24- 6- 0) 0.800  
    42  MN     HS   997.2214                                 Burnsville      MnHSHL   2         AA     29  (16-11- 2) 0.586  
    43  NY     T1   997.2167                     BuffaloJrSabres18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     74  (55-17- 2) 0.757  
    44  MO     T1   997.1978                        StLouisBlues18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     57  (33-18- 6) 0.632  
    45  BC     PS   997.1924                      YaleHockeyAcademyPrep     CANPREP   2        CAN     27  (24- 3- 0) 0.889  
    46  ON     PS   997.1373                       StAndrewsCollegePrep     CANPREP   2        CAN     62  (46- 6-10) 0.823  
    47  AB     T1   997.0877                 CalgaryBuffaloesMidget_AAA      ABCM3A   3        AAA     51  (30-11-10) 0.686  
    48  CT     PS   997.0621                            SalisburySchool      USANEP   3        NEP     31  (22- 5- 4) 0.774  
    49  TX     T1   997.0520                    DallasStarsElite18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     56  (33-21- 2) 0.607  
    50  PA     T1   997.0474                PhiladelphiaJrFlyers18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     63  (40-23- 0) 0.635  
    51  NJ     T1   997.0361                        JerseyHitmen18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     67  (44-19- 4) 0.687  
    52  MN     HS   997.0165                                      Breck      MnHSHL   2          A     31  (22- 9- 0) 0.710  
    53  NH     PS   997.0110                      PhillipsAcademyExeter      USANEP   3        NEP     34  (24- 6- 4) 0.765  
    54  CT     T1   996.9814       ConnecticutWolfPack(National)16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     37  (28- 7- 2) 0.784  
    55  IL     T1   996.9601                        TeamIllinois18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     58  (33-21- 4) 0.603  
    56  CT     PS   996.9575                              LoomisChaffee      USANEP   3        NEP     29  (22- 5- 2) 0.793  
    57  MN     HS   996.9504                             Farmington(MN)      MnHSHL   1         AA     28  (19- 8- 1) 0.696  
    58  MN     HS   996.9172                             EastGrandForks      MnHSHL   8          A     30  (26- 4- 0) 0.867  
    59  MI     T1   996.9172                          Honeybaked18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     66  (38-20- 8) 0.636  
    60  MA     HS   996.9135                             MaldenCatholic      MAHSHL   1         D1     23  (19- 2- 2) 0.870  
    61  SK     T1   996.9012               ReginaPatCanadiansMidget_AAA      SKCM3A   3        AAA     77  (56-17- 4) 0.753  
    62  PA     T1   996.8967             PittsburghPenguinsElite18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     70  (40-26- 4) 0.600  
    63  MI     T1   996.8914                       LittleCaesars18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     70  (43-25- 2) 0.629  
    64  IL     T1   996.8864                      ChicagoMission16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     75  (47-20- 8) 0.680  
    65  CT     T1   996.8565                  MidFairfieldChiefs18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     26  ( 7- 9-10) 0.462  
    66  MN     HS   996.8438                                    Bemidji      MnHSHL   8         AA     30  (23- 5- 2) 0.800  
    67  WI     T1   996.8405                       TeamWisconsin18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     26  (12-12- 2) 0.500  
    68  AB     T1   996.8040              StrathmoreUFABisonsMidget_AAA      ABCM3A   3        AAA     66  (36-20-10) 0.621  
    69  MA     T1   996.7754                  BostonLittleBruins18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     26  (16- 8- 2) 0.654  
    70  MN     T1   996.7603                     MinnesotaBlades18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     29  (16- 7- 6) 0.655  
    71  CT     T1   996.7560                      StamfordSharks18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     23  (10- 9- 4) 0.522  
    72  WI     T1   996.7458                       TeamWisconsin16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     46  (26-17- 3) 0.598  
    73  QC     T1   996.7437                 LevisCommandeursMidget_AAA      LHQM3A   3        AAA     60  (44-16- 0) 0.733  
    74  MN     HS   996.6825                             LakevilleSouth      MnHSHL   1         AA     27  (14-11- 2) 0.556  
    75  NH     PS   996.6525                        KimballUnionAcademy      USANEP   3        NEP     36  (26- 8- 2) 0.750  
    76  MI     T1   996.6350                  OaklandJrGrizzlies18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     52  (28-22- 2) 0.558  
    77  MN     HS   996.5778                         Cretin-Durham-Hall      MnHSHL   3         AA     27  (16- 7- 4) 0.667  
    78  QC     T1   996.5767            ChateauguayGrenadiersMidget_AAA      LHQM3A   3        AAA     72  (46-26- 0) 0.639  
    79  MN     T1   996.5670                     MinnesotaBlades16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     29  (21- 7- 1) 0.741  
    80  SK     T2   996.5529                 SaskatoonIcehawksMidget_AA      CANM2A   2         AA     36  (15-15- 6) 0.500  
    81  MA     T1   996.5233                BostonJrBruins(Anderson)19U      USA19U   3        19U     19  ( 6- 7- 6) 0.474  
    82  ON     T1   996.5228                 TorontoNationalsMidget_AAA      ONCM3A   3        AAA     84  (60-10-14) 0.798  
    83  CT     PS   996.5128                                    Gunnery      USANEP   3        NEP     34  (23- 7- 4) 0.735  
    84  MI     T1   996.4845                        VictoryHonda16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     65  (43-22- 0) 0.662  
    85  ND     T1   996.4653            TeamGreatPlains(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     30  ( 3-13-14) 0.333  
    86  WI     T1   996.4525                 MilwaukeeJrAdmirals16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     60  (31-18-11) 0.608  
    87  NJ     T1   996.4335                   NewJerseyJrTitans18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     58  (37-19- 2) 0.655  
    88  ON     HS   996.4075                                     Lessor      EOHSHL   1        CAN     18  (17- 1- 0) 0.944  
    89  MN     T1   996.4069                  TeamNorth(UMHSEHL)18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     27  ( 3-14-10) 0.296  
    90  NJ     T1   996.3948                         TeamComcast18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     68  (40-26- 2) 0.603  
    91  MN     HS   996.3871                                 DuluthEast      MnHSHL   7         AA     31  (16-11- 4) 0.581  
    92  MA     PS   996.3846                      Noble&GreenoughSchool      USANEP   3        NEP     28  (21- 5- 2) 0.786  
    93  MB     T1   996.3796                     WinnipegWildMidget_AAA      MBCM3A   3        AAA     53  (41-12- 0) 0.774  
    94  ND     T1   996.3228                          THASelects18U_AAA    USA18U3A   3        AAA     19  (13- 6- 0) 0.684  
    95  NY     T1   996.3173                     BuffaloJrSabres16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     79  (51-17-11) 0.715  
    96  SK     T1   996.2783                   TisdaleTrojansMidget_AAA      SKCM3A   3        AAA     56  (40-16- 0) 0.714  
    97  MN     HS   996.2716                                     Delano      MnHSHL   2          A     28  (23- 5- 0) 0.821  
    98  AB     T1   996.2608                      EdmontonCACMidget_AAA      ABCM3A   3        AAA     55  (30-17- 8) 0.618  
    99  QC     T1   996.2446   CollegeCharlesLemoyneRiverainsMidget_AAA      LHQM3A   3        AAA     64  (41-23- 0) 0.641  
   100  MI     T1   996.2303                   MichiganNationals16U_AAA    USA16U3A   3        AAA     74  (38-19-17) 0.628  
   101  MN     HS   996.2301                                GrandRapids      MnHSHL   7         AA     27  (14-11- 2) 0.556  
   102  MN     HS   996.1957                                   Moorhead      MnHSHL   8         AA     28  (17- 9- 2) 0.643  
   103  MA     PS   996.1944                               DexterSchool      USANEP   3        NEP     37  (20- 7-10) 0.676  
   104  ON     T1   996.1922                   TorontoJrCanadians99_AAA    ONT99AAA   3        AAA     87  (60-17-10) 0.747  
   105  MN     HS   996.1861                                    Hopkins      MnHSHL   6         AA     26  (12-12- 2) 0.500  
   106  MN     HS   996.1845                                 MapleGrove      MnHSHL   5         AA     27  (13-14- 0) 0.481
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Very interesting Data, thanks for posting. Nice to see MN High School Hockey is still King of the Hill!
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lsqrank01
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:00 pm

Post by lsqrank01 » Sat Dec 19, 2015 2:04 am

NotMinnesotan wrote:Any list that has the second place single A school ahead of the National Champs for U18 Midgets is absurd and doesn't deserve to be posted. You could say, look at this group of numbers did with an order of teams, but to try to justify how great Minnesota High School Hockey is by it seems like a stretch.
Calm down, did you not look at the second chart? It clearly shows that beyond the first handful of teams, that the USA/Canada Tier 1 AAA leagues trended significantly above any interscholastic high school league. You need to look at the details before putting foot in mouth. The other pit-fall that you made, which in all truth 98% of us make the same mistake is that we interpret these ranking scores as an absolute quantity without error. The score by itself is only half the information. The other half of the information that you need to consider is what is the sigma associated with these scores? In laymen's terms, what is the "plus/minus" error associated with any single score? We did not report it, but with 74,000 DOF's in the least squares adjustment, it is in all probability approximately in the magnitude of +/- a couple of tenths to one-half goal. So when you complain that Hermantown has a higher absolute score than the Tier 1 AAA national champ, you really have nothing to complain about because statistically they are equal if you consider the plus/minus factor.

To give a simple example, say that you have two benchmarks in the ground where BM-A has a reported survey elevation of 996.123 and BM-B has an elevation of 996.145 , and one asked the question which benchmark is higher? If the associated sigmas are +/- 0.001, then yes BM-B would be considered to be higher in elevation. BUT, if the sigma is really +/- 0.5, then statistically the two BM's are equal in elevation.

My biggest grip about coaches polls (surveys) is that they usually do not report the margin of error associated with the given ranking, which by the way can be readily computed using a similar methodology that political polls used when they report their results. The adjustment technique that was used to compute this set of rankings treated a game score as though it was an observed elevation difference (see vertical network adjustment for details).

In regard to another's comment about so-called blow-out scores being non-relevant, unless a human recording error was made, i.e. the score were reported or entered incorrectly, it is indeed a valid score that requires an equal weight, otherwise you are introducing a systematic bias into your data unnecessarily and filtering your data without justification. Again, this is a mistake commonly made by certain ranking systems in order to make the data fit their model more closely, or to bend their numerical results to fit a perceived social norm.

Sorting out just the MN high school teams (below), and considering the whole season's worth of scores, rather than just the end of year state tourney results, I think it would be very hard to argue with the ordering of the teams for those who really know the league. For example, the human experts were in love with Elk River last year and consistently rated them high in the human polls based on their regular season record and accumulation of game score differential, which the numerical adjustment clearly reflects. Where on the other hand, Duluth East was very inconsistent, but had an amazing run in its last 4 games of the year to get to the State Finals. Also, had Edina's top scorer not sustained an injury, the state championship game mostly likely would have been a contest between Edina & Lakeville North, which again is reflected in the numbers.

Code: Select all

North
American
LSQRank            Score                      Team       League   sec Cls
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
     1  MN     HS  1000.6733                  Edina      MnHSHL   2  AA   
     2  MN     HS  1000.0000             LakevilleN      MnHSHL   1  AA   
     4  MN     HS   999.0922            SaintThomas      MnHSHL   3  AA   
     8  MN     HS   998.7186             Hermantown      MnHSHL   7   A   
     9  MN     HS   998.6348               ElkRiver      MnHSHL   7  AA   
    13  MN     HS   998.3293            EdenPrairie      MnHSHL   6  AA   
    21  MN     HS   997.9186                Wayzata      MnHSHL   6  AA   
    22  MN     HS   997.8184             HillMurray      MnHSHL   4  AA   
    25  MN     HS   997.7774                    BSM      MnHSHL   6  AA   
    28  MN     HS   997.7176              PriorLake      MnHSHL   2  AA   
    32  MN     HS   997.6283             HolyFamily      MnHSHL   6  AA   
    35  MN     HS   997.4714                 Blaine      MnHSHL   5  AA   
    36  MN     HS   997.4053             Minnetonka      MnHSHL   6  AA   
    37  MN     HS   997.3822          WhiteBearLake      MnHSHL   4  AA   
    39  MN     HS   997.3212              Mahtomedi      MnHSHL   4   A   
    42  MN     HS   997.2214             Burnsville      MnHSHL   2  AA   
    52  MN     HS   997.0165                  Breck      MnHSHL   2   A   
    57  MN     HS   996.9504         Farmington(MN)      MnHSHL   1  AA   
    58  MN     HS   996.9172         EastGrandForks      MnHSHL   8   A   
    66  MN     HS   996.8438                Bemidji      MnHSHL   8  AA   
    74  MN     HS   996.6825             LakevilleS      MnHSHL   1  AA   
    77  MN     HS   996.5778                    CDH      MnHSHL   3  AA   
    91  MN     HS   996.3871             DuluthEast      MnHSHL   7  AA   
    97  MN     HS   996.2716                 Delano      MnHSHL   2   A   
   101  MN     HS   996.2301            GrandRapids      MnHSHL   7  AA   
   102  MN     HS   996.1957               Moorhead      MnHSHL   8  AA   
   105  MN     HS   996.1861                Hopkins      MnHSHL   6  AA   
   106  MN     HS   996.1845             MapleGrove      MnHSHL   5  AA   
   121  MN     HS   995.9767   BloomingtonJefferson      MnHSHL   2  AA   
   122  MN     HS   995.9450         DuluthMarshall      MnHSHL   7   A   
   145  MN     HS   995.6838                  Anoka      MnHSHL   5  AA   
   157  MN     HS   995.5983               Eastview      MnHSHL   3  AA   
   166  MN     HS   995.5219             Stillwater      MnHSHL   4  AA   
   175  MN     HS   995.4531               Rosemont      MnHSHL   3  AA   
   180  MN     HS   995.4272              StMichael      MnHSHL   7  AA   
   182  MN     HS   995.4089              Roseville      MnHSHL   4  AA   
   186  MN     HS   995.3712         Centennial(MN)      MnHSHL   5  AA   
   196  MN     HS   995.3196   SaintPaulAcademy(MN)      MnHSHL   4   A   
   212  MN     HS   995.2017          DuluthDenfeld      MnHSHL   7   A   
   237  MN     HS   994.9966             HolyAngels      MnHSHL   2  AA   
   254  MN     HS   994.8160                  Orono      MnHSHL   2   A   
   257  MN     HS   994.8112              NewPrague      MnHSHL   1   A   
   259  MN     HS   994.7943          StCloudApollo      MnHSHL   6   A   
   261  MN     HS   994.7850                Cloquet      MnHSHL   7  AA   
   282  MN     HS   994.6004             MoundsView      MnHSHL   4  AA   
   285  MN     HS   994.5604            Andover(MN)      MnHSHL   7  AA   
   290  MN     HS   994.5350             Alexandria      MnHSHL   6   A   
   307  MN     HS   994.3934        ThiefRiverFalls      MnHSHL   8   A   
   333  MN     HS   994.1935                Sartell      MnHSHL   6   A   
   344  MN     HS   994.1144                Luverne      MnHSHL   3   A   
   349  MN     HS   994.0662                 Tartan      MnHSHL   4  AA   
   357  MN     HS   993.9911            StCloudCath      MnHSHL   6   A   
   363  MN     HS   993.9656                Hibbing      MnHSHL   7   A   
   380  MN     HS   993.8281             ForestLake      MnHSHL   7  AA   
   403  MN     HS   993.7133            FergusFalls      MnHSHL   6   A   
   404  MN     HS   993.7103         SpringLakePark      MnHSHL   5   A   
   410  MN     HS   993.6730                Buffalo      MnHSHL   8  AA   
   417  MN     HS   993.6275            AppleValley      MnHSHL   3  AA   
   419  MN     HS   993.6246                Warroad      MnHSHL   8   A   
   425  MN     HS   993.5915                  Eagan      MnHSHL   3  AA   
   428  MN     HS   993.5673                 Roseau      MnHSHL   8  AA   
   434  MN     HS   993.5159           DetroitLakes      MnHSHL   8   A   
   435  MN     HS   993.5050               Woodbury      MnHSHL   3  AA   
   441  MN     HS   993.4730              EastRidge      MnHSHL   3  AA   
   456  MN     HS   993.2765            SouthStPaul      MnHSHL   4   A   
   458  MN     HS   993.2565                  Osseo      MnHSHL   5  AA   
   475  MN     HS   993.1856              Blake(MN)      MnHSHL   2   A   
   481  MN     HS   993.1339               Hastings      MnHSHL   3  AA   
   515  MN     HS   992.9865          RochesterLord      MnHSHL   1   A   
   532  MN     HS   992.9116             Chanhassan      MnHSHL   2  AA   
   543  MN     HS   992.8679              Crookston      MnHSHL   8   A   
   557  MN     HS   992.7530          RochesterMayo      MnHSHL   1  AA   
   559  MN     HS   992.7404     BloomingtonKennedy      MnHSHL   2   A   
   564  MN     HS   992.7069                 Rogers      MnHSHL   5  AA   
   585  MN     HS   992.5892           ChamplinPark      MnHSHL   5  AA   
   594  MN     HS   992.5261            MankatoWest      MnHSHL   1   A   
   613  MN     HS   992.4377          RochesterCENT      MnHSHL   1  AA   
   639  MN     HS   992.3518            TotinoGrace      MnHSHL   4   A   
   658  MN     HS   992.2844          StPaulJohnson      MnHSHL   4   A   
   666  MN     HS   992.2385        ArmstrongCooper      MnHSHL   6  AA   
   681  MN     HS   992.1840                 NewUlm      MnHSHL   3   A   
   683  MN     HS   992.1745               Brainard      MnHSHL   8  AA   
   686  MN     HS   992.1674              AlbertLea      MnHSHL   1   A   
   694  MN     HS   992.1233             MHHAunited      MnHSHL   4   A   
   716  MN     HS   992.0486         Northfield(MN)      MnHSHL   1   A   
   730  MN     HS   992.0200             Hutchinson      MnHSHL   3   A   
   732  MN     HS   992.0160                Kittson      MnHSHL   8   A   
   799  MN     HS   991.7478              MplsNovas      MnHSHL   2   A   
   818  MN     HS   991.6586            StLouisPark      MnHSHL   2   A   
   846  MN     HS   991.5743            RochesterJM      MnHSHL   1  AA   
   854  MN     HS   991.5374              Faribault      MnHSHL   1   A   
   866  MN     HS   991.5111               Virginia      MnHSHL   7   A   
   876  MN     HS   991.4725             RiverLakes      MnHSHL   8  AA   
   895  MN     HS   991.4002               Irondale      MnHSHL   4  AA   
   940  MN     HS   991.2637               Owatonna      MnHSHL   1  AA   
   942  MN     HS   991.2578                 Simley      MnHSHL   4   A   
   965  MN     HS   991.1788            StCloudTech      MnHSHL   8  AA   
   996  MN     HS   991.0721                StPeter      MnHSHL   1   A   
  1014  MN     HS   991.0142                Eveleth      MnHSHL   7   A   
  1024  MN     HS   990.9832               Greenway      MnHSHL   7   A   
  1059  MN     HS   990.8932               Shakopee      MnHSHL   2  AA   
  1098  MN     HS   990.7546            MankatoEast      MnHSHL   1   A   
  1111  MN     HS   990.7154                 ParkCG      MnHSHL   3  AA   
  1122  MN     HS   990.6918             SaukRapids      MnHSHL   6   A   
  1155  MN     HS   990.6183          MoundWestonka      MnHSHL   2   A   
  1166  MN     HS   990.5856                    LDC      MnHSHL   3   A   
  1172  MN     HS   990.5703                RedWing      MnHSHL   1   A   
  1230  MN     HS   990.4101             CoonRapids      MnHSHL   5  AA   
  1231  MN     HS   990.4078                Waconia      MnHSHL   2   A   
  1241  MN     HS   990.3923           ChisagoLakes      MnHSHL   5   A   
  1248  MN     HS   990.3693              StFrancis      MnHSHL   7  AA   
  1263  MN     HS   990.3311            LittleFalls      MnHSHL   6   A   
  1270  MN     HS   990.3137                   MAML      MnHSHL   8  AA   
  1280  MN     HS   990.2946             ParkRapids      MnHSHL   8   A   
  1387  MN     HS   989.9946                Proctor      MnHSHL   5   A   
  1458  MN     HS   989.7955          Princeton(MN)      MnHSHL   5   A   
  1466  MN     HS   989.7718                 Chaska      MnHSHL   2   A   
  1469  MN     HS   989.7537               Marshall      MnHSHL   3   A   
  1504  MN     HS   989.6552            NorthStPaul      MnHSHL   4  AA   
  1510  MN     HS   989.6373              LaCresant      MnHSHL   1   A   
  1563  MN     HS   989.4959                 Sibley      MnHSHL   4   A   
  1695  MN     HS   989.1663              LakeWoods      MnHSHL   8   A   
  1726  MN     HS   989.0890                 IFALLS      MnHSHL   7   A   
  1775  MN     HS   988.9748           RedLakeFalls      MnHSHL   8   A   
  1810  MN     HS   988.8818          Cambridge(MN)      MnHSHL   7  AA   
  1869  MN     HS   988.7043             Providence      MnHSHL   5   A   
  1891  MN     HS   988.6439             NorthShore      MnHSHL   7   A   
  1942  MN     HS   988.4970                 Austin      MnHSHL   1   A   
  2007  MN     HS   988.3110                Willmar      MnHSHL   3   A   
  2110  MN     HS   988.0556           StPaulComoPk      MnHSHL   4   A   
  2183  MN     HS   987.9120                 Winona      MnHSHL   1   A   
  2201  MN     HS   987.8795                   Mora      MnHSHL   5   A   
  2338  MN     HS   987.5693                 Waseca      MnHSHL   1   A   
  2401  MN     HS   987.4326          NorthernLakes      MnHSHL   6   A   
  2748  MN     HS   986.6060            DodgeCounty      MnHSHL   1  AA   
  2812  MN     HS   986.4593             RedwoodVal      MnHSHL   3   A   
  3038  MN     HS   985.9797                 Morris      MnHSHL   3   A   
  3111  MN     HS   985.7908           LegacyChrist      MnHSHL   5   A   
  3151  MN     HS   985.6888             PrairieCtr      MnHSHL   6   A   
  3218  MN     HS   985.4926                 Wadena      MnHSHL   6   A   
  3354  MN     HS   985.1581               PineCity      MnHSHL   5   A   
  3693  MN     HS   984.3094                BigLake      MnHSHL   8  AA   
  3794  MN     HS   984.0871                 Windom      MnHSHL   3   A   
  3969  MN     HS   983.5386              MooseLake      MnHSHL   5   A   
  4016  MN     HS   983.3234         StPaulHiLandPk      MnHSHL   4   A   
  4035  MN     HS   983.2418           Breckenridge      MnHSHL   6   A   
  4038  MN     HS   983.2353               Fairmont      MnHSHL   3   A   
  4225  MN     HS   982.5864                    Ely      MnHSHL   7   A   
  4277  MN     HS   982.4093              Richfield      MnHSHL   2   A   
  4391  MN     HS   981.9483            NorthBranch      MnHSHL   5   A   
  4447  MN     HS   981.6754                 Bagley      MnHSHL   8   A   
  4747  MN     HS   979.8860            Worthington      MnHSHL   3   A   

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