AA Rankings for 12/6/15
Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:24 am
Here’s the first set of in-season rankings. Teams have played anywhere between two and seven games, which means these are all a combination of expectations and on-ice results. I try not to overreact to a single early season win or loss, as these things often sort themselves out over time, and slavishly following ‘X beat Y so X must be higher’ logic leads to teams getting jerked around without any logic. As always, the goal here is to see beyond one or two results and get the big picture.
1. Eden Prairie (3-0)
-The Eagles came in as #1 and have done nothing to lose that spot so far, scoring five or six goals each game against respectable competition. The bigger questions are on defense, and they’ll get a huge test this week against high-powered Benilde in an early season 1-vs.-2 matchup.
This week: Tues vs. Cretin-Derham Hall, Fri at #2 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-0)
-The Red Knights have exploded out of the gate with one impressive win after the next, which launches them up near the top. Their puck movement is superb, and they look a few steps ahead of the competition when it comes to their cohesion and balance. We’ll see if they can maintain that edge over the course of the season.
This week: Tues vs. Woodbury, Fri vs. #1 Eden Prairie
3. Duluth East (4-0)
-The Hounds grabbed some attention by flattening Wayzata, though they did struggle to put away some weaker competition this past week. When at their best they can roll with anyone, but the discipline so far leave something to be desired. This week will be an interesting test in that regard; their two opponents aren’t high-powered on paper, but trips to Cloquet are never easy, and STMA took them to overtime last year.
This week: Thurs at Cloquet, Sat at St. Michael-Albertville
4. Blaine (4-0)
-This pick also feels like a reach; it’s just hard to find a clear order behind the top two at the moment. Still, they’ve got an overtime win over Edina and have cleaned up against everyone else. They face the two next-best teams in the Northwest Suburban this week, which will help provide some better measurement.
This week: Thurs at #15 Centennial, Sat vs. #13 Elk River
5. Grand Rapids (4-1-1)
-A narrow loss to streaking Benilde is no great concern, and the Thunderhawks’ tie with Bemidji is no slouch, either. They’ve taken care of business against everyone else. The stakes get a little higher this week, as they visit a 7AA rival and take on the defending champs.
This week: Tues vs. Cloquet, Sat at #8 Lakeville North
6. Bemidji (2-0-1)
-The Jacks threw down the gauntlet in 8AA with a 5-0 win over Moorhead, and also held high-powered Grand Rapids to a 1-1 tie. The win over Apollo was a bit tight, but the Eagles have a strong goalie, and most importantly, the Jacks are looking strong in back despite some losses to graduation. Given their schedule, they’ll probably stay close to Grand Rapids for a while here by virtue of that tie. A bunch of Class A teams now await them.
This week: Tues at Thief River Falls, Thurs at Warroad, Sat at Rogers
7. Wayzata (4-2)
-The Trojans’ start to the year included strong wins over Edina and Hill, but a rough road trip north handed them a pair of losses. Some flashes of offense are an encouraging sign to go with their characteristic D. Breck this week looks like a real challenge, and Anoka isn’t a free win either.
This week: Thurs vs. Breck, Sat vs. Anoka
8. Lakeville North (1-1)
-A 6-5 loss in their opener against Stillwater despite a huge shot edge exposed the Panthers’ soft underbelly. One figures they can only go up from there, but it’s definitely something to watch. This week’s game with Grand Rapids may push that defense and goaltending even further, and the Farmington game, while it should be a win, will be a key 1AA barometer.
This week: Thurs at Farmington, Sat vs. #5 Grand Rapids
9. Edina (5-2)
-No one played more than the Hornets over the first couple weeks, and while they picked up a few quality wins, they also lost both their top ten games. This isn’t the classic high-powered Edina team, though there is plenty of potential in its young stars, and they have a lot of developing to do over the course of the season. They now get to wait until their Holiday Classic as other teams shift around them.
This week: Idle
10. Stillwater (3-0)
-The win over Lakeville North is a very solid start to the year, but I’m going to pump the brakes some: they still gave up 5 goals, and didn’t carry the play much. I want to see another big win—and get a better idea of what North’s defense and goaltending look like going forward—before I toss them up near the top. Their schedule over the next two weeks, unfortunately, doesn’t give them many such opportunities.
This week: Tues at Hastings, Thurs at East Ridge, Sat at Park
11. Holy Family (4-2)
-The Fire have done a good job of being competitive so far, picking up a top 15 win over Minnetonka and losing narrowly to Edina and Breck. They seem to do a good job of controlling play, though that hasn’t always translated into large goal totals against quality teams. St. Thomas offers their next test of any magnitude.
This week: Tues vs. Waconia, Thurs at Hutchinson, Sat at St. Thomas Academy
12. Hill-Murray (1-2)
-It’s a slow start for the Pioneers, as they got thumped by Benilde and lost to Wayzata. One figures they’ll come around, but there may be some growing pains for a fairly young offense and a defense that could use some experience beyond the top pair. The rivalry renewal with White Bear is unusually early this year, and there’s probably more uncertainty around both teams this year than at any other time in recent memory.
This week: Tues vs. White Bear Lake, Sat at Maple Grove
13. Elk River (3-0)
-Not much to say about the Elks in the early going, who beat three teams they should have beaten over the first two weeks. Things get noticeably tougher this week, as they run through three of 5AA’s top four in quick succession.
This week: Tues at Maple Grove, Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at #4 Blaine
14. Minnetonka (2-2)
-A win over St. Thomas keeps the Skippers afloat in the top 15. There’s not much shame in losses to Holy Family and Grand Rapids, but this young team will likely need a bit more time before they really put things together.
This week: Sat at Moorhead
15. Centennial (2-1)
-The Cougars lost a decent game against Edina and are otherwise untested. That’s enough for a temporary top 15 placement, and this week’s Blaine game gives them a chance to make a move.
This week: Tues at Armstrong-Cooper, Thurs vs. #5 Blaine, Sat at Andover
On the Bubble
Prior Lake (2-1)
-The Lakers lost to Eden Prairie, but rolled past a couple of mid-tier South Suburban teams. They continue with conference play over the next couple weeks, with Lakeville South and Eagan up next.
Moorhead (2-1)
-The Spuds steamrolled two weaker opponents, but the 5-0 loss to Bemidji leaves them with a big hill to climb in 8AA. Section rival Roseau is up this week, along with their next serious statewide test against Minnetonka.
St. Thomas Academy (2-1-1)
-It’s been a decidedly slow start of the Cadets, with a narrow escape against Rosemount, a tie against Eastview, and a loss to Minnetonka. This isn’t a huge surprise given how much they lost, so we’ll see if they can start to turn a corner against Holy Family.
Lakeville South (0-1)
-It’s just one game, but the Cougars didn’t show much fight in an opening loss to Holy Family. Prior Lake this week will provide a stronger test.
Eastview (3-0-1)
-The Lightning are off to a decent start, and their tie with St. Thomas throws them in with Bloomington Jefferson and Burnsville as 3AA contenders to dethrone the Cadets.
A laundry list of other teams somewhere in the conversation: Farmington, Burnsville, Bloomington Jefferson, White Bear Lake, Anoka, Maple Grove, Cloquet, Duluth Marshall, Roseau, St. Michael-Albertville
1. Eden Prairie (3-0)
-The Eagles came in as #1 and have done nothing to lose that spot so far, scoring five or six goals each game against respectable competition. The bigger questions are on defense, and they’ll get a huge test this week against high-powered Benilde in an early season 1-vs.-2 matchup.
This week: Tues vs. Cretin-Derham Hall, Fri at #2 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-0)
-The Red Knights have exploded out of the gate with one impressive win after the next, which launches them up near the top. Their puck movement is superb, and they look a few steps ahead of the competition when it comes to their cohesion and balance. We’ll see if they can maintain that edge over the course of the season.
This week: Tues vs. Woodbury, Fri vs. #1 Eden Prairie
3. Duluth East (4-0)
-The Hounds grabbed some attention by flattening Wayzata, though they did struggle to put away some weaker competition this past week. When at their best they can roll with anyone, but the discipline so far leave something to be desired. This week will be an interesting test in that regard; their two opponents aren’t high-powered on paper, but trips to Cloquet are never easy, and STMA took them to overtime last year.
This week: Thurs at Cloquet, Sat at St. Michael-Albertville
4. Blaine (4-0)
-This pick also feels like a reach; it’s just hard to find a clear order behind the top two at the moment. Still, they’ve got an overtime win over Edina and have cleaned up against everyone else. They face the two next-best teams in the Northwest Suburban this week, which will help provide some better measurement.
This week: Thurs at #15 Centennial, Sat vs. #13 Elk River
5. Grand Rapids (4-1-1)
-A narrow loss to streaking Benilde is no great concern, and the Thunderhawks’ tie with Bemidji is no slouch, either. They’ve taken care of business against everyone else. The stakes get a little higher this week, as they visit a 7AA rival and take on the defending champs.
This week: Tues vs. Cloquet, Sat at #8 Lakeville North
6. Bemidji (2-0-1)
-The Jacks threw down the gauntlet in 8AA with a 5-0 win over Moorhead, and also held high-powered Grand Rapids to a 1-1 tie. The win over Apollo was a bit tight, but the Eagles have a strong goalie, and most importantly, the Jacks are looking strong in back despite some losses to graduation. Given their schedule, they’ll probably stay close to Grand Rapids for a while here by virtue of that tie. A bunch of Class A teams now await them.
This week: Tues at Thief River Falls, Thurs at Warroad, Sat at Rogers
7. Wayzata (4-2)
-The Trojans’ start to the year included strong wins over Edina and Hill, but a rough road trip north handed them a pair of losses. Some flashes of offense are an encouraging sign to go with their characteristic D. Breck this week looks like a real challenge, and Anoka isn’t a free win either.
This week: Thurs vs. Breck, Sat vs. Anoka
8. Lakeville North (1-1)
-A 6-5 loss in their opener against Stillwater despite a huge shot edge exposed the Panthers’ soft underbelly. One figures they can only go up from there, but it’s definitely something to watch. This week’s game with Grand Rapids may push that defense and goaltending even further, and the Farmington game, while it should be a win, will be a key 1AA barometer.
This week: Thurs at Farmington, Sat vs. #5 Grand Rapids
9. Edina (5-2)
-No one played more than the Hornets over the first couple weeks, and while they picked up a few quality wins, they also lost both their top ten games. This isn’t the classic high-powered Edina team, though there is plenty of potential in its young stars, and they have a lot of developing to do over the course of the season. They now get to wait until their Holiday Classic as other teams shift around them.
This week: Idle
10. Stillwater (3-0)
-The win over Lakeville North is a very solid start to the year, but I’m going to pump the brakes some: they still gave up 5 goals, and didn’t carry the play much. I want to see another big win—and get a better idea of what North’s defense and goaltending look like going forward—before I toss them up near the top. Their schedule over the next two weeks, unfortunately, doesn’t give them many such opportunities.
This week: Tues at Hastings, Thurs at East Ridge, Sat at Park
11. Holy Family (4-2)
-The Fire have done a good job of being competitive so far, picking up a top 15 win over Minnetonka and losing narrowly to Edina and Breck. They seem to do a good job of controlling play, though that hasn’t always translated into large goal totals against quality teams. St. Thomas offers their next test of any magnitude.
This week: Tues vs. Waconia, Thurs at Hutchinson, Sat at St. Thomas Academy
12. Hill-Murray (1-2)
-It’s a slow start for the Pioneers, as they got thumped by Benilde and lost to Wayzata. One figures they’ll come around, but there may be some growing pains for a fairly young offense and a defense that could use some experience beyond the top pair. The rivalry renewal with White Bear is unusually early this year, and there’s probably more uncertainty around both teams this year than at any other time in recent memory.
This week: Tues vs. White Bear Lake, Sat at Maple Grove
13. Elk River (3-0)
-Not much to say about the Elks in the early going, who beat three teams they should have beaten over the first two weeks. Things get noticeably tougher this week, as they run through three of 5AA’s top four in quick succession.
This week: Tues at Maple Grove, Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at #4 Blaine
14. Minnetonka (2-2)
-A win over St. Thomas keeps the Skippers afloat in the top 15. There’s not much shame in losses to Holy Family and Grand Rapids, but this young team will likely need a bit more time before they really put things together.
This week: Sat at Moorhead
15. Centennial (2-1)
-The Cougars lost a decent game against Edina and are otherwise untested. That’s enough for a temporary top 15 placement, and this week’s Blaine game gives them a chance to make a move.
This week: Tues at Armstrong-Cooper, Thurs vs. #5 Blaine, Sat at Andover
On the Bubble
Prior Lake (2-1)
-The Lakers lost to Eden Prairie, but rolled past a couple of mid-tier South Suburban teams. They continue with conference play over the next couple weeks, with Lakeville South and Eagan up next.
Moorhead (2-1)
-The Spuds steamrolled two weaker opponents, but the 5-0 loss to Bemidji leaves them with a big hill to climb in 8AA. Section rival Roseau is up this week, along with their next serious statewide test against Minnetonka.
St. Thomas Academy (2-1-1)
-It’s been a decidedly slow start of the Cadets, with a narrow escape against Rosemount, a tie against Eastview, and a loss to Minnetonka. This isn’t a huge surprise given how much they lost, so we’ll see if they can start to turn a corner against Holy Family.
Lakeville South (0-1)
-It’s just one game, but the Cougars didn’t show much fight in an opening loss to Holy Family. Prior Lake this week will provide a stronger test.
Eastview (3-0-1)
-The Lightning are off to a decent start, and their tie with St. Thomas throws them in with Bloomington Jefferson and Burnsville as 3AA contenders to dethrone the Cadets.
A laundry list of other teams somewhere in the conversation: Farmington, Burnsville, Bloomington Jefferson, White Bear Lake, Anoka, Maple Grove, Cloquet, Duluth Marshall, Roseau, St. Michael-Albertville