Section 3AA

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Gotothenetman
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Section 3AA

Post by Gotothenetman » Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:14 am

How does this section seeding go? Lots of different levels of games and mixed conference schedules. Teams beating good teams losing to weaker teams. What do you think?

1) CDH
2) east view
3) st. Thomas
4) Eagan
5) Hastings
6) Rosemount
7) east ridge
8) woodbury
9) Apple valley
10) cottage Grove

Tough to way the different schedule strengths

almostashappy
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2012 1:07 pm

Re: Section 3AA

Post by almostashappy » Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:24 am

Gotothenetman wrote:How does this section seeding go?
karl's latest thoughts on this topic are worth reposting here:
3AA
13 Eastview
(17) Cretin-Derham Hall
12 St. Thomas Academy
(18) Eagan
-Perhaps the most confusing section I have ever seen. The top four are close enough for head-to-head results to matter, and Eastview and Cretin are both unbeaten in the section. The question then becomes whether Cretin’s win over St. Thomas is enough to make up for their otherwise weaker regular season; they have two questionable losses and two questionable ties, while Eastview only has one poor loss and that came early in the season. Since Eastview has some quality wins, too, I’m going with the Lightning, though I’d understand if the coaches voted otherwise. If they do think Cretin deserves the top spot, Eastview should probably drop to #3 behind St. Thomas. There’s also the matter of the Eastview-Eagan game on Feb. 11; the loser is almost certainly #4, while an Eastview win would help their cause for #1, and an Eagan win would get them up to #3. An upset loss for any of these teams over the next two weeks could have a real impact, too. Barring a number of upsets, this section is unlikely to have a team seeded at State, no matter who wins.
At this point, I'm not so certain that Eastview is a lock for fourth seed if they lose to Eagan (as much as I might wish it so). That would give them a regular series split (with Lightening winning on "neutral" TCF outdoor ice), and right now EV has both a better overall record and a better section record (and whatever tip of the hat is earned by having won this section last year). Of course, Eagan would gain some talking points if they beat both Eastview and the top-ranked LN (at Ames) in the final two weeks.

As far as the rest of the seeds go...hard to see Hastings seeded higher than East Ridge since the Raptors beat them twice this year. And now that he's posted his A rankings for the week, I'm certain that HSHW will be quick to explain why STAA deserves to be wherever he thinks they deserve to be. The only question is whether he can provide that explanation in 5 paragraphs or less. :wink:
Last edited by almostashappy on Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

Simpleton
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Post by Simpleton » Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:40 am

Karl has 1-4 summarized well...too bad STA only has one section game to reference but the bottom line is all 4 will be hosting qtr final games...which they've easily earned.

5-10 will be largely impacted by upcoming Hastings-Park and Wdby-Rsmnt games. Despite a 1-0 loss to Wdby last night, ER's 6-3-1 section record would seem to give them inside track on 5th seed. Will be interesting to see if any of 5-10 has enough to knock off one of top 4 as has occurred last few years.

Hockey922
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Post by Hockey922 » Tue Feb 04, 2014 12:01 pm

I heard news that eagans goalie, Andrew Lindgren is leaving early for juniors? Can anyone confirm this?

OneMoreYear
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Post by OneMoreYear » Tue Feb 04, 2014 12:20 pm

Hockey922 wrote:I heard news that eagans goalie, Andrew Lindgren is leaving early for juniors? Can anyone confirm this?
Before the end of the year?? Very very unlikely. For next year, would not be surprised given the dwindling Wildcat stable of horses. I am sure someone closer to the Cats has "Almost" the whole "Happy" story?

InYourFace09
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Re: Section 3AA

Post by InYourFace09 » Tue Feb 04, 2014 1:15 pm

Gotothenetman wrote:How does this section seeding go? Lots of different levels of games and mixed conference schedules. Teams beating good teams losing to weaker teams. What do you think?

1) CDH
2) east view
3) st. Thomas
4) Eagan
5) Hastings
6) Rosemount
7) east ridge
8) woodbury
9) Apple valley
10) cottage Grove

Tough to way the different schedule strengths
East Ridge will most likely get the 5th, then maybe Rosemount will be 6th and Hastings at 7 and the rest are in order.

No way East Ridge will be below Hastings, given the fact that East Ridge has beaten them twice and have similar records.

Cadets16
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Post by Cadets16 » Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:57 pm

Why do some refer to STA as STAA? I've seen it a few times around here.

Hockey922
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Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 9:02 am

Post by Hockey922 » Tue Feb 04, 2014 10:00 pm

Cadets16 wrote:Why do some refer to STA as STAA? I've seen it a few times around here.
It's a joke about STA's move up to AA

almostashappy
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Post by almostashappy » Wed Feb 05, 2014 7:55 am

OneMoreYear wrote:
Hockey922 wrote:I heard news that eagans goalie, Andrew Lindgren is leaving early for juniors? Can anyone confirm this?
Before the end of the year?? Very very unlikely. For next year, would not be surprised given the dwindling Wildcat stable of horses. I am sure someone closer to the Cats has "Almost" the whole "Happy" story?
Don't know, and wouldn't comment one way or the other if I did.

That said, with only a couple weeks to go in the regular season, why would anyone leave any high school team that has a reasonable chance to do well in sections?

HShockeywatcher
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Re: Section 3AA

Post by HShockeywatcher » Wed Feb 05, 2014 9:14 am

almostashappy wrote: And now that he's posted his A rankings for the week, I'm certain that HSHW will be quick to explain why STAA deserves to be wherever he thinks they deserve to be. The only question is whether he can provide that explanation in 5 paragraphs or less. :wink:
I thought the goal was 5 paragraphs or more... 8)

I think head to head matters significantly more than overall schedule when seeding for section and state, which is apparently different than others.
PageStat has St Thomas at #7 with a rating of 21.02, Cretin at #19 with a rating of 20.28 and both Eastview and Eagan are between them. That's 4 teams with a difference of 12 places in a completely unbiased ranking.
These are 4 teams who all have good wins and bad losses.

All head to head match ups have been decided by 1 goal.
Cretin beat St Thomas 4-3 and Eagan 2-1.
St Thomas lost to Cretin 3-4.
Eastview beat Eagan 3-2.

I'd say Cretin is #1, Eastview is ahead of Eagan and the rest is up to personal opinion. I'd say St Thomas has done better with common opponents than Eagan so the Wildcats should be #4 with EV and STA taking the middle. They have 3 common opponents; North, Burnsville and Prior Lake.
EV is 0-2 against Burnsville, 1-1 with North and lost their first game to Prior Lake.
STA lost to Burnsville and beat both North and Prior Lake.
If you additionally look for quality wins, which I don't think matter as much but some do, Eagan and North are the only ones Eastview has while St Thomas has more.

I think it isn't hard to arrive at:
1 Cretin
2 St Thomas
3 Eastview
4 Eagan
I think a case can be made to switch 2 and 3 and I wouldn't argue (I like the Cadets' away jerseys better anyway). The schedules are quite full, but hopefully next year all 4 of these teams play each other.
How'd I do on 5 paragraphs? :D

Tenoverpar
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f

Post by Tenoverpar » Fri Feb 07, 2014 10:32 am

Well ROSEVILLE blew CDH's doors off last night...so I can't see CDH being seeded any higher than 3rd..the last few weeks haven't been a great sign that their trending in the right direction. (losses to Roseville and Stillwater and struggling to a 1-1 tie with Mounds View)

Sats81
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Post by Sats81 » Fri Feb 07, 2014 10:49 am

This section could go in so many different directions. EV, Eagan, STA, CDH. Total toss up.

thestickler07
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Post by thestickler07 » Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:11 am

Semis are gonna be a dogfight. Should be a very entertaining send off for the Coliseum.

Tenoverpar
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f

Post by Tenoverpar » Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:47 am

4AA is going to be a bigger dogfight than anyone thinks...I know everyone is all HILL HILL HILL wide margin WBL wide margin...everyone else, but I think Roseville and STillwater will both be tough outs...other than section 1AA that is going to be a smearfest with North walking through everone..I'm thinking every other section is completely up for grabs and there are going to be a few surprises....playoffs, yes, we're talkin' playoffs!

almostashappy
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Re: f

Post by almostashappy » Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:16 pm

Tenoverpar wrote:Well ROSEVILLE blew CDH's doors off last night...so I can't see CDH being seeded any higher than 3rd..the last few weeks haven't been a great sign that their trending in the right direction. (losses to Roseville and Stillwater and struggling to a 1-1 tie with Mounds View)
It's a bad loss, sure, and gives Eastview the #1 seed in my book (as of today). But CDH (15-5-1) still has a better overall record than STA and Eagan, and beat both teams head-to-head. I doubt that "trending" is given more consideration at the seeding meeting than either of those two factors.
It could, however, certainly come into play in the quarterfinals....

Remember the Eagles.

Hockey922
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Post by Hockey922 » Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:36 pm

CDH has been incredibly inconsistent these past 2 weeks. Will the real raiders please stand up?

Sats81
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Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:29 am

Re: f

Post by Sats81 » Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:40 pm

Tenoverpar wrote:4AA is going to be a bigger dogfight than anyone thinks...I know everyone is all HILL HILL HILL wide margin WBL wide margin...everyone else, but I think Roseville and STillwater will both be tough outs...other than section 1AA that is going to be a smearfest with North walking through everone..I'm thinking every other section is completely up for grabs and there are going to be a few surprises....playoffs, yes, we're talkin' playoffs!
I would not be super surprised to see WBL knock off Hill. Hill is not as good as advertised in my opinion.

Nuts&Bolts
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Post by Nuts&Bolts » Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:45 pm

7AA is the biggest cluster for seeding IMO followed by:
3AA
5AA
4AA
6AA
2AA*
8AA
1AA

A 1st round bye is still in play in 2AA with the clear edge going to Edina. The bye is big with only 7 teams in the section. Does the MSHSL make a off cycle change this spring and move a team like Hastings from 3AA to 2AA to get 3AA down to 9 teams from the current field of 10?

With 3AA if CDH wins out it seems they should be the #1 seed. Unblemished section record, beat STAA, and they have a stronger schedule than EV. If CDH falters and EV wins out convincingly they are the likely #1 seed. Should CDH get the 1 and Almost's Eagan team beats EV the Lightening probably slip to 4 with Eagan at 3 and STAA at 2. East Ridge seems positioned for the 5 seed. Like many I don't mind Almost joining Karl's approach to pair the publics against the privates in the semi finals should they win in the QFs but the most likely scenario for this happening is if CDH and EV both tank and STA gets the 1 seed and CDH falls to 4. :?:

karl(east)
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Contact:

Post by karl(east) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:17 pm

Nuts&Bolts wrote:7AA is the biggest cluster for seeding IMO followed by:
3AA
5AA
4AA
6AA
2AA*
8AA
1AA

A 1st round bye is still in play in 2AA with the clear edge going to Edina. The bye is big with only 7 teams in the section. Does the MSHSL make a off cycle change this spring and move a team like Hastings from 3AA to 2AA to get 3AA down to 9 teams from the current field of 10?

With 3AA if CDH wins out it seems they should be the #1 seed. Unblemished section record, beat STAA, and they have a stronger schedule than EV. If CDH falters and EV wins out convincingly they are the likely #1 seed. Should CDH get the 1 and Almost's Eagan team beats EV the Lightening probably slip to 4 with Eagan at 3 and STAA at 2. East Ridge seems positioned for the 5 seed. Like many I don't mind Almost joining Karl's approach to pair the publics against the privates in the semi finals should they win in the QFs but the most likely scenario for this happening is if CDH and EV both tank and STA gets the 1 seed and CDH falls to 4. :?:
I'd disagree about Cretin having a tougher schedule than Eastview. Using this past week's rankings, I have EV playing 4 teams in the top 10 and 4 in the 11-20 range, while CDH plays 3 in the top 10 and 4 in the 11-20 range. And while the SEC might have a little more parity, the SSC as a whole is a stronger conference. At best it's a wash, probably with a slight edge to Eastview, and PS2 would back me up on that.

If Eastview wins out, I think they deserve the top seed. If they don't, it gets messier, especially if CDH doesn't get a win over either BSM or WBL. I agree that STA should still have some spot at the top seed if both of those happen. One bad loss to CDH shouldn't ruin their seed if they do end up looking like the team with the obvious best body of work in the section.

almostashappy
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Post by almostashappy » Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:30 pm

Nuts&Bolts wrote:7AA is the biggest cluster for seeding IMO followed by:
3AA
5AA
4AA
6AA
2AA*
8AA
1AA

A 1st round bye is still in play in 2AA with the clear edge going to Edina. The bye is big with only 7 teams in the section. Does the MSHSL make a off cycle change this spring and move a team like Hastings from 3AA to 2AA to get 3AA down to 9 teams from the current field of 10?

With 3AA if CDH wins out it seems they should be the #1 seed. Unblemished section record, beat STAA, and they have a stronger schedule than EV. If CDH falters and EV wins out convincingly they are the likely #1 seed. Should CDH get the 1 and Almost's Eagan team beats EV the Lightening probably slip to 4 with Eagan at 3 and STAA at 2. East Ridge seems positioned for the 5 seed. Like many I don't mind Almost joining Karl's approach to pair the publics against the privates in the semi finals should they win in the QFs but the most likely scenario for this happening is if CDH and EV both tank and STA gets the 1 seed and CDH falls to 4. :?:
Hastings can't be moved into 2AA unless the MSHSL violates it's own rules about compact, contiguous section boundaries. Apple Valley should be the one to go (furthest west in 3AA). CDH is the next best fit.

Actually, what I'd like to see are the top 4 seeds set up to allow for two public vs private semi-finals in 3AA.... either STAA vs Eastview and CDH vs Eagan, or STAA/Eagan and CDH/Eastview. That would give us a section final that is: (a) a third public vs private game, (b) an Eagan vs Eastview replay of last year's final, or (c) a STAA vs CDH rematch.

Of course, that's all assuming that the top four seeds hold serve. And you know what happens when you assume......

Hockey922
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Post by Hockey922 » Sun Feb 09, 2014 12:27 am

With Eastview tying rosemount and CDH beating east ridge (going undefeated in section play), what does this mean for seeding?

almostashappy
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Post by almostashappy » Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:42 am

Hockey922 wrote:With Eastview tying rosemount and CDH beating east ridge (going undefeated in section play), what does this mean for seeding?
It should mean nothing for seeding 1 - 4.

We heard this same argument last year, and looked what happened. Being undefeated in section play would mean more if CDH played more of the SSC teams in the section. And, of course, if CDH hadn't been stumbling a bit over the past stretch of games.

On the other hand, Rosemount might have a stronger argument that it deserves the #5 seed instead of East Ridge.

Simpleton
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Post by Simpleton » Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:28 am

almostashappy wrote:
Hockey922 wrote:With Eastview tying rosemount and CDH beating east ridge (going undefeated in section play), what does this mean for seeding?
It should mean nothing for seeding 1 - 4.

We heard this same argument last year, and looked what happened. Being undefeated in section play would mean more if CDH played more of the SSC teams in the section. And, of course, if CDH hadn't been stumbling a bit over the past stretch of games.

On the other hand, Rosemount might have a stronger argument that it deserves the #5 seed instead of East Ridge.
Could it perhaps impact 1-4 in that an Eagan win over Eastview next week pushes them ahead of Eastview? Rosemount vs. Woodbury game is big, too, in that a win vs. Woodbury does give Rosemount good argument for 5.

almostashappy
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Post by almostashappy » Sun Feb 09, 2014 8:51 am

Simpleton wrote: Could it perhaps impact 1-4 in that an Eagan win over Eastview next week pushes them ahead of Eastview? Rosemount vs. Woodbury game is big, too, in that a win vs. Woodbury does give Rosemount good argument for 5.
An Eagan win could push CDH ahead of Eastview, but after the Raider's less-than-stellar week I would suggest that they'd need to win at least one of their games this week (against BSM or WBL) and not lose badly in the other if they want top seed. Lose both, and CDH limps into sections going 1-3-1 in last 5 games. Not exactly top seed pedigree.

almostashappy
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Post by almostashappy » Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:33 pm

(bump)

I could have started a separate poll/thread for the big Eagan-Eastview game tonight, but figured that since it could easily impact 3AA seedings that we might as well discuss the game here, along with some other games that might affect sectional rankings:

Eastview @ Eagan
CDH @ BSM
Rosemount @ Woodbury
Park @ Apple Valley

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