AA Rankings for 12/30/12

[karl(east)]

The first month of the season has been about as tumultuous as it gets, with parity in Class AA at an all-time high. Anyone in the top ten probably has a realistic shot at a state title, and the best team in the state might just be a Class A team. (Class A as a whole seems very strong this year; I would put three A teams in a two-class top ten.) While I won’t say this was the hardest set of rankings I’ve ever done, it was probably the most time-consuming.

To help make sense of it all, I broke out teams’ records against other top teams as a guide, though they are not gospel. The two numbers you see after each team’s record is a) their record vs. teams in the top ten, plus St. Thomas, Hermantown, and Breck; and b) their record vs. teams in the top 25, plus the aforementioned A teams, Totino-Grace, Duluth Marshall, and East Grand Forks, who I believe fall somewhere in that range as well.

1. Hill-Murray (10-1-1) 5-1-1/6-1-1
-Couldn’t quite get past St. Thomas, but they did pick up two more quality wins against top-notch AA competition, including a lopsided one over Burnsville. The top spot is practically a toss-up between the Pioneers and Wayzata, but I had to pick one, and in the end, the deciding factor was Hill’s record against top ten teams. They haven’t done it with many style points, but they are the only team that is undefeated against AA competition, and that’s enough for #1…for now. An Edina team with something to prove offers a massive test on Saturday.
This week: Sat at #3 Edina

2. Wayzata (10-1) 2-1/8-1
-The Trojans showed some flair in winning the Sports Authority Classic, and a running time win over Benilde is the crowning achievement to a great first month of play. It looks like they’ve found the offensive outbursts they need to go with their very strong defense, and with balanced scoring, they’ll be tough to beat. But before we get too excited, the win over Benilde is only one game. If they can do it again in the rematch this week, there’s a chance they could be #1 even if Hill beats Edina. Regardless of the outcome, the rapid rise of Coach O’Leary’s crew has been remarkable.
This week: Thurs at #5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Mound-Westonka

3. Edina (10-2) 3-2/7-2
-After looking like the team to beat over the first month of the season, the Hornets laid an egg in the Schwan Cup, losing twice before scraping out an OT win against Blaine in the 7th place game. Opposing defenses did a good job of shutting down the speedy top line, and their lower lines, while still quite strong, didn’t look nearly as dominant when matched against other deep teams. The Hornets still have a fine résumé, so I’m giving them some benefit of the doubt, but they need to get Hurley and Malmquist rolling again. The week ahead could well be their regular season moment of truth, with a huge section game and a contest with top-ranked Hill-Murray.
This week: Thurs vs. #6 Burnsville, Sat vs. #1 Hill-Murray

4. Eagan (8-2-1) 1-2-1/4-2-1
-Blew through the first two rounds of the South St. Paul Tournament, spotted Hermantown a 5-goal lead in the final, and then showed some resilience in coming back for a tie. In a year when many teams are bouncing all over the place, the Wildcats have been very steady, which has to count for something. Only one game this week, and it’s an easy one.
This week: Sat vs. Bloomington Kennedy

5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-3) 1-3/6-3
-As with the Edina ranking, this may be a bit generous, especially for a team coming off a 7-1 whipping at the hands of Wayzata. Their defense has some serious flaws, and they’re showing through against pretty much every top team they play. But the Red Knights have played a very difficult schedule in the early going, and there’s no doubting the firepower here. The next few weeks are huge; first they turn around and get a second crack at Wayzata, and with teams like St. Thomas and Minnetonka looming, it’s time to learn just how serious their apparent shortcomings are.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Wayzata

6. Burnsville (6-4-1) 1-4-1/3-4-1
-I have some reservations about putting a team that hasn’t won five of its eleven games this high, but all of the losses were to teams ranked higher than them, and the tie came against a team that beat the squad immediately below them. The Blaine win was an especially nice addition to their record, though the lopsided loss to Hill does raise some questions. Their season could really turn on their next few games, with huge section battles at Edina and Prior Lake up next.
This week: Thurs at #3 Edina, Sat at #13 Prior Lake

7. Duluth East (6-3) 2-3/4-3
-After mucking around and looking like only a borderline top 15 team for a month, the Hounds suddenly put together authoritative defensive performances in wins over Edina and Minnetonka in the Schwan Cup Gold consolation bracket. They have to sit back here in the rankings because of the losses to Centennial and Breck, but they’ve shown they can beat anyone when they’re on. A tough week ahead should tell us whether they’ve turned a corner, or if they’re just inconsistent.
This week: Thurs at #9 Blaine, Sat at #15 Moorhead

8. Minnetonka (8-3-1) 3-2/5-3-1
-There are some very real positives on the Skippers’ record; they have important wins over Eagan and Blaine, and they’re the only team to have beaten St. Thomas Academy. But the past two weeks have not been very pretty, and momentum does matter; they’ve lost to Stillwater, tied Moorhead, and lost to Duluth East. They have the next week off, which should give them some time to recover their form ahead of a meeting with Benilde in two weeks’ time.
This week: Idle

9. Blaine (6-3-1) 2-3/3-3-1
-The Bengals’ undefeated season came crashing down in a hurry, as they lost three straight in the Schwan Cup. After that, they look more like a team that had one nice night against Benilde than a legitimate top-5 team, though they can take a big step back in that direction if they can knock off Duluth East on Thursday.
This week: Thurs vs. #7 Duluth East, Sat vs. Andover

10. Centennial (8-3) 1-2/5-3
-The loss to Lakeville South is something of a setback for the Cougars, and they also gave up a little more than one might have liked against Holy Angels. But their second win over Andover was by a wider margin than the first meeting, and the wins over Duluth East and Moorhead look better now than they did a week ago. They now settle into conference play for a few weeks, the most important game being this Thursday’s battle with Elk River.
This week: Thurs vs. #12 Elk River, Sat at Osseo

11. Bloomington Jefferson (7-3) 0-2/4-3
-It wasn’t a banner Sports Authority Classic for the Jaguars, as they gave up six to surging Wayzata and lost the finale to Maple Grove. But they did hammer out a win against a depleted Eden Prairie, and given the strength of some of their early-season achievements and some other teams falling in the rankings, that’s enough to push them up a couple of spots. The week ahead is about as easy as it will get the rest of the way, as they play two South Suburban bottom-dwellers.
This week: Thurs vs. Rosemount, Sat vs. Apple Valley

12. Elk River (7-5) 0-3/4-5
-The Elks had a strong showing in St. Louis Park, with the lopsided win over Moorhead being a particularly good sign for a team in this part of the rankings. Are they starting to put it together after a tough tournament in Edina? This week’s game with Centennial could answer that question.
This week: Thurs at #10 Centennial, Sat at Armstrong

13. Prior Lake (6-4) 0-2/2-4
-The Lakers seem to be turning it on now, as they came out of the Schwan Cup Silver with a championship trophy and only allowed one goal in the process. The defense clearly seems to be coming along; we’ll see how real the improvement is this week, as the competition ratchets up a notch.
This week: Thurs at Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #6 Burnsville

14. Lakeville South (5-5) 1-3/3-4
-This isn’t an easy spot to fill, so I’ll go with a team that has shown some flashes. The Cougars really have been the model of inconsistency so far, with wins over two top teams and a loss to Bloomington Kennedy. They’ve also seized the lead in 1AA, which is pretty impressive considering what they lost from last season’s team. The upcoming week is a fairly easy one.
This week: Thurs at Rochester Century, Sat at Eastview

15. Moorhead (7-5-1) 0-3-1/2-4-1
-A tough team to figure: when the Spuds lose, they tend to lose big, but they also have a nice tie against Minnetonka and, like Lakeville South, are in decent control of a weaker section. They need to resolve their goaltending issues against top teams; they’ve got another tough one up this week.
This week: Sat vs. #7 Duluth East

The Next Ten

Holy Family (5-3) 0-2/2-3
-Didn’t play this past week, so the Fire maintain their holding pattern just outside the top 15. With no opponents of any real significance until Wayzata in mid-January, they could be around here for a while, though they could slide up or down based on the fortunes of teams around them. Road trips to Delano and St. Cloud Cathedral are on the docket this week.

Mounds View (7-1-2) 0-0/0-1
-A dominant performance in the Bronze division of the Schwan Cup has the Mustangs boasting an impressive record, but they haven’t played a AA opponent in the top twenty-five yet. They clearly have the firepower, but they’re not unblemished, and all they can really do is keep on racking up the SEC wins until they get to some big nonconference games in late January.

Eden Prairie (5-6-1) 0-2/2-6-1
-The St. Louis Park Tournament saw the addition of injury to insult for the Eagles, who managed to stop some of the bleeding in the final game with an overtime win over a team that had previously beaten them, Lakeville North. It has not been pretty, and they now need to get healthy; fortunately, they only have one game until next Friday, though it is an important one against Prior Lake. A win in there would help restore some sanity, and they have the schedule over the second half to prove they’re better than this, though it will be a long road back.

Grand Rapids (8-3-1) 0-1/3-1-1
-A second ugly loss sends the Thunderhawks tumbling from the top fifteen, and they can’t use injuries as an excuse for this one, either. They have more talent than this, as some of their more significant wins have shown, but they can’t go about losing to teams like St. Francis and expect to be ranked. A road trip to Cloquet kicks off a very tough three-week stretch for the Thunderhawks, which also includes a second Cloquet game, Duluth East, Hermantown, rival Hibbing, and a Hockey Day match-up with Benilde to wrap it all up.

Maple Grove (5-7) 0-5/2-7
-Yes, the record is bad, but they took a step in the right direction this past week by knocking off Lakeville North and Bloomington Jefferson. The next two weeks are not particularly challenging, either, so they have a chance to build some momentum against Northwest Suburban competition.

Andover (5-6) 0-4/1-6
-The Huskies’ offense abandoned them in the Schwan Cup Silver, where they wound up fourth. They’re consistently decent—they have yet to allow more than four goals in a game—but they just don’t score enough to be much of a contender right now. A big game against Blaine looms this week.

Roseau (6-3-1) 0-1-1/0-3-1
-Sailed to three straight victories in their holiday tournament, as expected. Holy Angels heads north to give them a potential challenge this week.

Stillwater (5-4-1) 1-1/1-2
-Had a decent showing in the Schwan Cup Silver, losing narrowly to Andover in the first round and finishing fifth. They have that nice win over Minnetonka, and they seem to be coming on as of late, so that’s enough to vault the Ponies into the top 25 for now.

Cloquet (8-4) 0-1/0-2
-The Jacks still don’t have any wins of any great significance, but they sailed through their holiday tournament and have shown glimpses of their offensive prowess. We’ll see how well they handle Grand Rapids this coming week.

Lakeville North (4-7) 0-2/1-5
-Six straight losses, but all were to teams ahead of them, and a couple of those were competitive. Have a chance to get back on the winning track with a trip to Rosemount.

And now a midseason tour of the sections, including a list of important section games over the next two weeks.

1AA
14 Lakeville South
(25) Lakeville North
-South’s comfortable win over North has them in the early lead here, though North is off to a respectable start as well, and I’d expect the second meeting to be tighter. After that, Mayo seems to have solidified its hold on the 3-spot, with Farmington not far behind.
Important Section Games: None

2AA
3 Edina
6 Burnsville
11 Bloomington Jefferson
13 Prior Lake
-2AA has the makings of a very strong section this season, with four ranked teams. Edina’s only remaining game against any of the others is this week, when they battle Burnsville for the top spot. But the next week is most crucial for Burnsville, who plays Edina, Prior Lake, and Jefferson in succession. Thanks to SSC play they have rematches with the last two, but the next couple of weeks will be key for setting the tone down the stretch.
Important section games: 1/3 Burnsville at Edina, 1/5 Burnsville at Prior Lake, 1/8 Jefferson at Burnsville

3AA
4 Eagan
-With no other teams even on the watch list, Eagan is miles ahead of the field here. The 2 and 3 seeds at this point, tentatively, would be East Ridge and Eastview, with Cretin and Hastings’ meeting this week likely to distinguish 4 and 5. There’s still plenty of SEC play to change the order up, though. A couple of those teams could crawl into the top 25 with a strong second half.
Important section games: 1/3 Hastings at Cretin, 1/12 Eastview at Eagan

4AA
1 Hill-Murray
(17) Mounds View
(23) Stillwater
-The news here is Mounds View, who has emerged from the chase pack and is the early frontrunner for the 2-seed, though it’s hard to say if they’ll have much of a shot at Hill. Stillwater’s win over Minnetonka proves they can knock off a top team on a good night, though they’ll have to do a lot more to be better than a 3-seed. White Bear still has some potential, while Roseville has been respectable as well.
Important section game: 1/3 Stillwater at Mounds View

5AA
9 Blaine
10 Centennial
(20) Maple Grove
-Blaine claimed frontrunner status here with a narrow win over Centennial. It looks as if the declaration that this section is down was premature, though no one here did especially well in their holiday tournaments. Despite the ugly record, no one is really challenging Maple Grove for the 3-spot.
Important section games: None

6AA
2 Wayzata
5 Benilde
8 Minnetonka
(16) Holy Family
(18) Eden Prairie
-While it’s still the state’s toughest section, 6AA’s three most recent champions have been showing some weaknesses lately. Wayzata leaps to the front after the Benilde win, though there will be plenty of carnage among the top few teams in the coming weeks. Eden Prairie has sunk down into the 5-spot for now, but they have plenty of opportunities to atone for their early struggles with the Lake Conference schedule. Meanwhile, Holy Family lurks as something of an unknown, though they’ll face Wayzata and Benilde before the season is over. Lots of section play upcoming here, with big games for Benilde over the next few weeks before Lake Conference play gets going.
Important section games: 1/3 Wayzata at Benilde, 1/12 Minnetonka at Benilde

7AA
7 Duluth East
12 Elk River
(19) Grand Rapids
(21) Andover
(24) Cloquet
-Not as good as advertised at the start of the season, but there’s still plenty of intrigue here. East, with the most impressive achievements outside the section and wins over Andover and Cloquet, is in the driver’s seat for the top seed at this point. The section seeding will really turn around Grand Rapids; the losses to Forest Lake and St. Francis are especially bad considering that they’re section games, which could hurt them in the seeding meeting. But on the flip side, they did beat Elk River, and the Elks do look like they belong in the top 15. Rapids has a ton of big section games coming up, too; Cloquet is also climbing back on to the radar following a big win over Forest Lake. With four key section games left, they’ll have a chance to climb into the top four.
Important section games: 1/3 Grand Rapids at Cloquet, 1/10 Grand Rapids at Duluth East

8AA
15 Moorhead
(22) Roseau
-The Spuds’ decent showings over the past two weeks have improved this section’s standing, and Roseau seems to be picking it up some as well. Beyond that, Bemidji, Brainerd, and St. Cloud Tech are all 1-1 against each other, and will likely continue to battle for the 3-5 spots.
Important section games: 1/10 Brainerd at Moorhead, 1/12 Bemidji at Roseau

The week ahead is an abbreviated one, but there are still heaps of big games to be played; we’ll do this again next week and see if things make more sense.

[almostashappy]

4. Eagan (8-2-1) 1-2-1/4-2-1

Can't wait to see all the love and tonkafan's and Mr. Potatohead's reaction to this one.

Thanks, Karl.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Karl your analysis is remarkable after a very wild holiday weekend of play. 2012-2013 is a season of some certain unexpected upsets.

[alcloseshaver]

Karl, Your rankings tell a great story of the season so far, great job.
In 7AA, How big a factor is it that Elk River only has 1 more section game Vs Andover? Is the loss to Rapids outweighed by GR's 2 bad section losses? Andover will be scary if Perry get's hot and steals one, looks like it will be wide open. Are the semi's in Duluth?

[TheHockeyDJ]

Karl, Your rankings tell a great story of the season so far, great job.
In 7AA, How big a factor is it that Elk River only has 1 more section game Vs Andover? Is the loss to Rapids outweighed by GR's 2 bad section losses? Andover will be scary if Perry get's hot and steals one, looks like it will be wide open. Are the semi's in Duluth?

Yes, semi-finals are in Duluth at Amsoil Arena starting at Noon on Sat. Feb. 23. Amsoil Arena has the contract for many years. They are looking into moving the semi-finals to the evening in upcoming years, such as a 6PM start for game 1. I totally agree with Karl's rankings overall and the 7AA rankings. I can't defend a loss to St. Francis, honestly it is so bad I think you have to give Elk River the 2 over GR. You can't seed any team based on one game, it is the entirety for their season result and Elk River overall has a better comprehensive season result. I know Andover has a good goalie, but after watching them 3 times I will be shocked if they get past round one. They just don't have anyone upfront that can dominate and they will have to rely too heavily on Perry. I see East, Rapids, CEC, and Elk River reaching the semi-finals. I think Rapids loss in the quarterfinals last year is more so a reason they won't lose this time around than to think that is some sort of trend that will continue. I believe that will provide them a greater sense of urgency once the playoffs begin.

[tonkafan77]

4. Eagan (8-2-1) 1-2-1/4-2-1

Can't wait to see all the love and tonkafan's and Mr. Potatohead's reaction to this one.

Thanks, Karl.

Minnetonka has had a rough couple of weeks. But if they manage to go 5-3 or 6-2 in Lake Conference play, they should be able to move up into the top 3 ahead of Eagan where they belong.

[old goalie85]

Rapids will get beat in 4 out of the next 5.

[karl(east)]

Karl, Your rankings tell a great story of the season so far, great job.
In 7AA, How big a factor is it that Elk River only has 1 more section game Vs Andover? Is the loss to Rapids outweighed by GR's 2 bad section losses?

I'd agree with HockeyDJ that the Rapids' bad section losses outweigh the Rapids win over Elk River, at least for now--Elky should be #2 at the moment.

It could get really messy if Rapids beats East next week, though. Then we'd have a team with wins over #1 and #2, but losses to #6 and #7.

If East beats Rapids and at least one of Forest Lake and Cloquet, I think that would wrap up the top seed for the Hounds. Elk River probably needs Rapids to beat East, or a very weak second half from East, to be #1. I don't think Rapids has a realistic shot at #1 unless they go on an absolute tear from here on out, though as long as they get one win against Cloquet, they will probably stay in the top 3.

[stpaul]

Hill-Murray - Wayzata is also right around he corner. They play Jan. 12 at Plymouth.

[starmvp]

Awesome job with the rankings this week after a hectic set of holiday games. Section 6AA is going to be a mess as always comes playoffs time.

[Slap Shot]

Burnsville seems a bit high but que sera sera.

[TennJed]

hey old goalie-whatever you're smokin' put it away. it's affecting your logic.

[karl(east)]

Burnsville seems a bit high but que sera sera.

Having seen all of the top ten teams minus Eagan play, I'd tend to agree. I guess they're getting credit for consistency, which East and Minnetonka have yet to really find this season. A Blaze loss to Edina might slip them behind those two, though there will be a lot of moving parts with all the top ten games coming up in this short week.

Incidentally, due to the holiday, this week will be one of the few in which my rankings take into account the same number of games played as LPH...I'm curious to see how they compare.

Happy New Year, everyone...

[MNHockeyFan]

Happy New Year, everyone...

Happy New Year to you as well, Karl, and thanks for all you do here.

While everyone doesn't always agree with every single ranking that you do, that's OK, it's interesting to consider dissenting opinions. But it would be hard to imagine anyone putting in the time to do a more thorough analysis than what you put into it each week.

[almostashappy]

Incidentally, due to the holiday, this week will be one of the few in which my rankings take into account the same number of games played as LPH...I'm curious to see how they compare.

Latest LPH rankings now out...as far as comparing Top 10 goes, only difference is the Burnsville ranking (#6 for karl, #8 for LPH).

http://www.letsplayhockey.com/latest-ra ... chool.html

Given how up and down a lot of teams have been, and the level of parity this year, the level of agreement between all of the polls (both "human" and computer-generated) is striking.

[karl(east)]

Incidentally, due to the holiday, this week will be one of the few in which my rankings take into account the same number of games played as LPH...I'm curious to see how they compare.

Latest LPH rankings now out...as far as comparing Top 10 goes, only difference is the Burnsville ranking (#6 for karl, #8 for LPH).

http://www.letsplayhockey.com/latest-ra ... chool.html

Given how up and down a lot of teams have been, and the level of parity this year, the level of agreement between all of the polls (both "human" and computer-generated) is striking.

Yeah, I think it's a good sign that the human rankers are probably learning what there is to be learned from the computers and taking their jobs seriously. Either that, or we're all wrong together.

I have no real quibble with their placement of Burnsville, either, though I'm a little surprised Wayzata didn't get any first-place votes (while Edina got two?). 11-13 lines up as well, though things start to come apart after that...their ranking of Grand Rapids seems high, though the computers seem to like Rapids' achievements better than I do, and I certainly think Rapids is better than they've shown.

The biggest differences across the various top 20s seem to be with Mounds View and Holy Family, which probably isn't surprising, since they are relative unknowns and haven't played much in the way of quality competition (though HFC has had a few big games among the few they've played so far). We'll see how those two shape up in the coming weeks...

[D3Referee]

2. Wayzata (10-1) 2-1/8-1
-The Trojans showed some flair in winning the Sports Authority Classic, and a running time win over Benilde is the crowning achievement to a great first month of play. It looks like they’ve found the offensive outbursts they need to go with their very strong defense, and with balanced scoring, they’ll be tough to beat. But before we get too excited, the win over Benilde is only one game. If they can do it again in the rematch this week, there’s a chance they could be #1 even if Hill beats Edina. Regardless of the outcome, the rapid rise of Coach O’Leary’s crew has been remarkable.
This week: Thurs at #5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Mound-Westonka

RESPECT. I like it. No place to go but up ... Remember that Karl, come January 13th it's UNDISPUTED!

[BlueLineSpecial]

2. Wayzata (10-1) 2-1/8-1
-The Trojans showed some flair in winning the Sports Authority Classic, and a running time win over Benilde is the crowning achievement to a great first month of play. It looks like they’ve found the offensive outbursts they need to go with their very strong defense, and with balanced scoring, they’ll be tough to beat. But before we get too excited, the win over Benilde is only one game. If they can do it again in the rematch this week, there’s a chance they could be #1 even if Hill beats Edina. Regardless of the outcome, the rapid rise of Coach O’Leary’s crew has been remarkable.
This week: Thurs at #5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Mound-Westonka

RESPECT. I like it. No place to go but up ... Remember that Karl, come January 13th it's UNDISPUTED!

[C-dad]

2. Wayzata (10-1) 2-1/8-1
-The Trojans showed some flair in winning the Sports Authority Classic, and a running time win over Benilde is the crowning achievement to a great first month of play. It looks like they’ve found the offensive outbursts they need to go with their very strong defense, and with balanced scoring, they’ll be tough to beat. But before we get too excited, the win over Benilde is only one game. If they can do it again in the rematch this week, there’s a chance they could be #1 even if Hill beats Edina. Regardless of the outcome, the rapid rise of Coach O’Leary’s crew has been remarkable.
This week: Thurs at #5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Mound-Westonka

RESPECT. I like it. No place to go but up ... Remember that Karl, come January 13th it's UNDISPUTED!

Umm, no. You can go down from 2 pretty easily. Especially if you lose 5-2 to a team you just destroyed last week.

[Bluewhitefan]

RESPECT. I like it. No place to go but up ... Remember that Karl, come January 13th it's UNDISPUTED!

Maybe just a bit pre-mature.

[Nuts&Bolts]

#5 BSM gets revenge over #2 Wayzata.
#3 Edina slips by #6 Burnsville.
IF Edina somehow beats #1 Hill, Karl has another interesting week with the top 5-6. Maybe time to hit the reset button and move the Hounds to #1 or 2 since there a team on a roll??

[Nostalgic Nerd]

IMO the two teams who will make the greatest surge are DE and BSM. Edina doesn't impress, but if I remember right they did beat BSM. So it's a tough call.