AA Rankings for 12/4/22

[karl(east)]

We are off and running in the 2022-2023 season, and things are already getting jumbled up. The first five, in some order, seem pretty straightforward so far. After that, it’s one giant cluster. Here’s my take:

1. Minnetonka (4-0)
-In a young season that has already seen some tumult, the Skippers have distinguished themselves early with a statement win over Andover, taking care of Moorhead, and blasting their two lower-tier opponents. It will take more time to say just how far ahead of the pack they are (if they indeed are at all), but for now, it’s a solid start. A date with a section opponent looms, and could tell us a lot about the 2AA race.
This week: Thurs at Rosemont, Sat at #11 Chanhassen

2. Rogers (3-0)
-The Royals marched past beatable opposition and took care of Lakeville South to assert their top five credentials. If they can do some damage against Andover this week, look out.
This week: Thurs at #4 Andover, Sat at St. Cloud

3. Wayzata (3-0)
-The Trojans’ first three results are as solid as anyone’s, with a 5-1 blitz of Maple Grove being the highlight. Unlike many past Wayzata editions, they have some legitimate offensive firepower and are willing to flash it. Two private school powers are up next, with the Benilde game holding some major section implications.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Hill-Murray, Sat at #13 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

4. Andover (3-1)
-The Minnetonka loss was a clunker for the Huskies, showing us nothing will come easy for the defending champs, especially as they try to stabilize a back end that saw a lot of turnover. They have also, however, made short work of Chanhassen and Moorhead, so any rumors of their demise are premature. The week ahead looks juicy, and we can expect a couple of displays of offensive talent in battles with Benilde and Rogers.
This week: Tues vs. #13 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs vs. #2 Rogers

5. Lakeville South (1-1)
-The Cougars haven’t done anything to damage their ranking in the opening weeks, but with Chaska hanging in there against them and a loss to Rogers, they aren’t raising their stock much, either. Their next few weeks are pretty light.
This week: Sat vs. Apple Valley/Burnsville

6. St. Thomas Academy (3-0)
-The Cadets are off to a very strong start through three games all with some significance to the program, as they handled Cretin and Duluth East in the opener and beat the Eastview team that dumped them out of the playoffs last season. They are now as much in the driver’s seat for a top seed as a team can be after a week and a half, and now enter a relatively light stretch in their schedule.
This week: Tues vs. Blake, Sat at Simley

7. Moorhead (2-3)
-It’s hard to know how harshly to judge the Spuds: the record is not great through five games, but all three of their losses are to top four teams, and they did get the Edina win. The Andover loss was the only one that got out of hand, but they definitely need to find ways to generate more of a punch. Traditional section rival Roseau is next on the docket, which could show us the size of the gap in 8AA. To that end, the narrow win over Bemidji might just be the most telling game they played in the season’s opening days.
This week: Tues at Roseau, Sat vs. Buffalo

8. White Bear Lake (3-0)
-The Bears took care if a couple of teams in the broad bubble, Centennial and Duluth East, to get off to a good enough start. Two section opponents are up next, with the Stillwater game taking on sudden added meaning after the Ponies’ win over Maple Grove.
This week: Tues at #14 Stillwater, Thurs at Roseville

9. Maple Grove (2-2)
-The Crimson did some cruel things to Anoka before an unexpected stumble against Stillwater. They doubled up the Ponies in shots, so it’s not a glaring red flag, but between this and the Wayzata game, they do seem like they let in some goals. They should roll this week.
This week: Thurs at Spring Lake Park, Sat at Blaine

10. Hill-Murray (1-1)
-The Pioneers’ Champions Cup showing was about what you’d expect out of a Hill team with that has undergone a lot of turnover: solid defensively, right there with quality opponents, but not scoring a ton quite yet. The Wayzata game this week will tell us more.
This week: Thurs at #3 Wayzata, Sat vs. Tartan

11. Chanhassen (2-1)
-The Storm couldn’t quite hang with Andover, but they steamrolled their other two opponents, including a respectable Sartell team. That’s all very nice, but the week ahead is a huge one for the new team on the block, including a game with an archrival with a chip on its shoulder and a section opponent who happens to be the top-ranked team in the state.
This week: Tues at Chaska, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka

12. Edina (1-3)
-It was a rough start for the Hornets, with a scoreless Turkey Trot and a loss to Holy Family, but they showed their talent and restored some order against Benilde, which also has value in 6AA. As usual, they take the week off prior to the Holiday Classic.
This week: Idle

13. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (0-1)
-Bad weather wiped out the Mahtomedi game, leaving us with just one Red Knight data point, and that one puts them right behind the Hornets. As usual, their ability to hold up in their own zone will be the key. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle two distinct but strong offensive attacks this coming week.
This week: Tues at #4 Andover, Sat vs. #3 Wayzata

14. Stillwater (2-1)
-Which Ponies are the real Ponies: the ones who lose to Centennial or the ones who beat Maple Grove? It may take a while to answer that question. I’ll lean a bit on the positive side right now, if only because we need someone to fill spots here. Their date with White Bear this week will set the tone for 4AA.
This week: Tues vs. White Bear Lake, Thurs at Park (Cottage Grove)

15. Cretin-Derham Hall (1-2)
-The Raiders have been plenty competitive in their first three games, and a win over Eden Prairie keeps them in the land of the ranked. They face various Woodbury teams this week.
This week: Thurs at Woodbury, Sat vs. East Ridge

The Next Ten

Eden Prairie (0-2)
-The new look Eagles dropped a pair of 2-1 affairs to Cretin and Hill, which isn’t deeply concerning, but these rankings do require wins to stay relevant. A trip to Duluth highlights the week ahead.

Shakopee (1-0)
-The Sabers opened things up with a solid win over Holy Family, though weather wiped out their meeting with Chanhassen, which keeps us from concluding too much here. Their relatively light early schedule continues this week with just one game against Lakeville North.

Holy Family (3-1)
-The Fire are off to a solid start, rolling past Blake and Totino-Grace and scoring a big win over Edina. The Shakopee game, however, was the most important of those four for section purposes, and did not go nearly as well. Mound and Prior Lake are up this week, so the record should continue to improve.

Eastview (2-1)
-So far, the Lightning seem correctly pegged in this neighborhood of the rankings, as they’ve picked up a respectable win against Centennial but got shut out by section rival St. Thomas. Eagan and Farmington should help them build up the record this week.

Grand Rapids (4-0)
-The Thunderhawks have scored a grand total of eight goals in four games, yet that’s good for a perfect record, as they have allowed just three. They’ve got an elite goalie in Myles Gunderson and they play the smart defense they need to win; this is who they are, as Duluth East learned this past week. We’ll see if they can keep that going in their annual weekend with Roseau and then the high-flying Warroad attack.

Centennial (2-2)
-The Cougars got decent wins over Stillwater and Totino but fell to Eastview and White Bear, which will keep them down around here. A home game with Hermantown looms this coming week.

Blake (1-1)
-Didn’t have a particularly convincing showing against Holy Family, but a win over St. Michael-Albertville keeps them relevant here for now. We’ll see if they can hang with St. Thomas and Eden Prairie this week.

Roseau (3-0)
-An old friend makes an appearance after putting up 25 goals in its first three games. The task gets considerably harder this week, with Moorhead and Grand Rapids headlining things, plus a section game with Elk River.

Duluth East (1-4)
-The Hounds’ record isn’t stellar, but they’ve at least shown they can skate with three top ten teams. Next up are a couple of section games against Forest Lake and Coon Rapids in which they need to take care of business and a collision with Eden Prairie.

Holy Angels (2-0)
-Beat a Woodbury team who was otherwise in line for a top 25 spot after beating Champlin, so they win the transitive battle for a top 25 slot. St. Paul Academy is up next.

Maybe next week will bring more clarity. (I never stop dreaming, even after over a decade of doing this.)

[GoldenBear]

Karl..great stuff! Thanks for your Rankings! GB

[Zamman]

Been a while for me, not much posting about anything lately.
Always love the rankings each week. Watched Edina last Monday and saw a better effort than when they played Maple Gove. This win over BSM will awaken the sleeping giant, but BSM scares me as a quality team. Have to get out to more games this week.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Karl..great stuff! Thanks for your Rankings! GB

Alright, let's hold off on the kissing up to Karl until after New Years. Jeez, he's gonna need diet shampoo to get his head through the door.

[StanleyCup55]

Each of the top 8 teams in this ranking are in different sections so they could all be at state. I’m sure things will change between now and then but should be a good state tourney this year if all of the #1 seeds win their sections.

[raidergrad72]

Karl..great stuff! Thanks for your Rankings! GB

Alright, let's hold off on the kissing up to Karl until after New Years. Jeez, he's gonna need diet shampoo to get his head through the door.

EPG ...Hockey Forum's answer to Jeff Hudson's Walter.
Or maybe it's the leftover chicken soup and white bread from last year's tournament!

[Joe2015]

Karl..great stuff! Thanks for your Rankings! GB

Alright, let's hold off on the kissing up to Karl until after New Years. Jeez, he's gonna need diet shampoo to get his head through the door.

[westsidescout]

Been a while for me, not much posting about anything lately.
Always love the rankings each week. Watched Edina last Monday and saw a better effort than when they played Maple Gove. This win over BSM will awaken the sleeping giant, but BSM scares me as a quality team. Have to get out to more games this week.

Granted it was BSM's first game of the season but what exactly about them was scary?

[ryguyMN]

Been a while for me, not much posting about anything lately.
Always love the rankings each week. Watched Edina last Monday and saw a better effort than when they played Maple Gove. This win over BSM will awaken the sleeping giant, but BSM scares me as a quality team. Have to get out to more games this week.

Granted it was BSM's first game of the season but what exactly about them was scary?

Agreed. I don't get the BSM hype either. Watched the Edina and BSM game and for the first half of the game I was thinking to myself how much BSM misses Yakish and Sarsland. The comeback was admirable, but I think the cupboards are kind of bare at BSM. Minnetonka and Wayzata scare me far more than BSM if I'm the opponent. I think Karl has BSM appropriately placed here.

[headsupsticksdown]

Been a while for me, not much posting about anything lately.
Always love the rankings each week. Watched Edina last Monday and saw a better effort than when they played Maple Gove. This win over BSM will awaken the sleeping giant, but BSM scares me as a quality team. Have to get out to more games this week.

Granted it was BSM's first game of the season but what exactly about them was scary?

Agreed. I don't get the BSM hype either. Watched the Edina and BSM game and for the first half of the game I was thinking to myself how much BSM misses Yakish and Sarsland. The comeback was admirable, but I think the cupboards are kind of bare at BSM. Minnetonka and Wayzata scare me far more than BSM if I'm the opponent. I think Karl has BSM appropriately placed here.

That didn’t age well.. They just beat Andover quite handily.

[westsidescout]

Watched Andover vs BSM online tonight and Andover did not look like the #4 team in the state. Outside their big guns they are small and young. Is Conway their #1 goalie?

Outside of BSM's top line (well Stewart to be precise) they looked blah as well. McElroy looked a lot better this evening. Defense still needs work.

[outdoorsuperstar]

Andover may not be as good as many of expected. Their coach is very good at getting the most out of his team, wondering if they can get a bit more consistent

[ryguyMN]

And Andover loses to Rogers. Was Andover put on too high of a pedestal this season just because they won it (some might say unexpectedly) last year?

[ryguyMN]

Outside of BSM's top line (well Stewart to be precise) they looked blah as well. McElroy looked a lot better this evening. Defense still needs work.

I’ve been impressed with Stewart as well for the time he’s been on the BSM varsity roster.

[BluntInstrument]

And Andover loses to Rogers. Was Andover put on too high of a pedestal this season just because they won it (some might say unexpectedly) last year?

Rogers was #2 and has now beaten LVS and Andover so maybe a little high but losing to Rogers isn't a huge upset

[Delayedoffsides]

And Andover loses to Rogers. Was Andover put on too high of a pedestal this season just because they won it (some might say unexpectedly) last year?

From what I’ve seen. Andover is ranked properly. Losing to Rogers 3-1 with an EN goal without their top 2 centers and playing right along with them with all the young guys that were playing. If I’m Andover I take that all day long. Great experience for those players and once healthy, will be there in the end. Rankings mean nothing in December. Let’s see where everyone ranks March 12th. The bigger question is. Can Rogers finally win a big section game and advance?

[BluntInstrument]

And Andover loses to Rogers. Was Andover put on too high of a pedestal this season just because they won it (some might say unexpectedly) last year?

From what I’ve seen. Andover is ranked properly. Losing to Rogers 3-1 with an EN goal without their top 2 centers and playing right along with them with all the young guys that were playing. If I’m Andover I take that all day long. Great experience for those players and once healthy, will be there in the end. Rankings mean nothing in December. Let’s see where everyone ranks March 12th. The bigger question is. Can Rogers finally win a big section game and advance?

They made it to section finals last year. What is a "big game and advance"? advance to state ?