Week 10

[Eagles93]

Some good matchups this week...

Monday
Orono vs Eastview

Tuesday
Hill-Murray vs BSM
Blaine vs Andover
Holy Family vs Hutchinson
Maple Grove vs Centennial
North Wright Co vs Wayzata
Proctor/Hermantown vs Edina

Thursday
Blake vs Wayzata
Cretin-DH vs Edina
Elk River vs Maple Grove
Orono vs Holy Angels

Saturday
Edina vs Andover (Outdoor)
Burnsville vs Lakeville South
Blake vs Holy Family
Minnetonka vs Elk River
Blaine vs Maple Grove

[Cookster]

Over the past couple of weeks, I have seen Tonka and Edina play. Both are just outstanding. Tonka appears to have more speed and has more players who can put the puck in the net. Edina plays that wide winger and their puck movement is incredible. Edina appears to have a slightly better defense, and both teams are lethal on the PP, averaging over 33%, while rarely giving up a goal on the PK.

While still early, I do think Tonka's road to winning the state is much tougher than Edina's. Should Andover, Tonka and Edina get to State, Tonka goes in at best the 3 seed, which means barring upsets, they have to pay Edina and Andover on back to back nights. Which ever team wins Saturday's game, means they get to watch the other 2 battle each other and then face the winner. That is why Saturday's game is a must for both teams.

Should be fun to watch.

[Slap Shot]

While still early, I do think Tonka's road to winning the state is much tougher than Edina's. Should Andover, Tonka and Edina get to State, Tonka goes in at best the 3 seed...

Very well possible, although the teams are currently 1-1 vs. each other with 1 game remaining. Should Tonka win that game and avoid any other losses it will be a close call. But Edina does have the edge right now without question.

[bodyup88]

The 1 seed will be between Andover and Edina - Minnetonka already has four losses. It is possible, in my opinion, for Andover to lose to Edina at Blakeslee on Saturday and still garner the #1 seed if the Hornets trip up at Pagel against the Skippers again or 46 hours later at Holy Family.

[girlshockey4ever]

Or if Edina loses to Andover and then loses to Tonka. Tonka would have beaten them twice. But both teams need to get through their sections before we get too far ahead of ourselves.

[moosepaw]

I agree HF Fire is on Fire! I would hate to play them now.

[girlshockey4ever]

The team that lost to HM 13 days ago, was outshot by Gentry 7 days ago, beat an average centennial team 2 days ago. C'mon now. A hot team is South...18 game winning streak.

[moosepaw]

Who is the best team that LS has beaten?

[Cookster]

Until HF can beat a top 5 2A team, I just cannot take them seriously. Yes, they have beaten 2 Top 1A teams, and have beaten a Benilde team that is noticeably weaker this year than last.

That being said, they have a 1 game season to go to state. The talent deficiency in 2AA is scary. They will win their first game easily, and then probably win 4-1 over EP, and get to play Tonka for the right to go to the X

[j4241]

What?

The 3, 4, 29, 34 and 36 are the presumptive top 5 seeds in 2AA (according to PageStat).

1AA has the 8 and 33 as the only teams in the same range.
3AA has the 18, 21, 22 and 28.
4AA has the 11, 12, 19 and 32.
5AA has 9, 13, 15, and 16.
6AA has the 1 (?), 5, 7, and 10.
7AA has the 2 (?), 20, 24 and 25.
8AA has the 27 (!) and 30.

Section 2AA stands out to you as talent deficiency?

It will have arguably the best section final (if rankings hold) in high school hockey. 3, 4, 5 and 8 should have good section finals (but between 2 and 4 of those will produce a team that doesn't belong among the top). 6 has the most talent (and might have a good section final). 1 and 7 will be a lopsided section final. Section 2 hardly stands out as deficient.

And Holy Familiy has beaten Benilde (5), Warroad (6), Wayzata (7), Blake (10), Gentry (11), HIll Murray (12), Centennial (15). Minnetonka is clearly a more talented team, but has proven beatable by a good goalie. Holy Family has an outstanding one. Tonka is at their best when they can pad stats by showing how much they can score against an inferior opponent. That will not be what their section final is.

[bodyup88]

I see Minnetonka doesn't play Holy Family in the regular season. Who won't play whom?

[girlshockey4ever]

Tonka at it's best against inferior opponents? A quick check of their game schedule on the hub tells us hey lost to Andover 2-1 with Andover scoring in the last minute on a 5x3. Then they lost to Andover 4-3 with Andover scoring with 2 minutes left. Then they beat Edina in overtime against the best goalie in the state. The only team to beat Edina. Then they lost to Edina 2-1 with Edina scoring with 2 minutes left. Do they pound inferior teams? It appears so. However how come other teams don't pound them? They beat HM 8-1. Edina beat them 3-1. Tonka beat EP 7-2 and 7-0. Edina beat them 3-1. Given all this it's tough to objectively say they play their best when they play inferior opponents. One can argue they play their best when they play the best teams.

[j4241]

They have, by far, the most talent in the state, meticulously assembled and recruited from a handful of different programs by their parent/super agent staff. And they have lost four games this year. Their three leading scoring forwards, averaging over 5 1/2 points per game, have a collective 2 goals and 3 assists over those four losses. They have a great win against an Edina team that is playing as an elite team with a shadow of its normal talent level. A surprisingly lopsided win against a pretty good HIill Murray team. What's their next best win? Wayzata - solid team, vastly less talent than Tonka, and they eked out at 1 goal win. An OT win against a Stillwater team vastly over-rated at the start of the season, now proven to be barely a top 20 team? They may well win state - like I said, most talent, meticulously assembled. But they are at their best beating up on weaker teams.

[j4241]

A few HDM thoughts:

Andover with a convincing win over Edina in the wind and sun. Stragman outduels Corniea. Seriously, Lapanta, can't you get the kids name right? STAGMAN! She certainly played well enough for you to.

Roseau and Brainerd play a thriller - Rams with the GWG with less than a minute left in the third.

Burnsville with a healthy Bowlby showing they are better than what people may have thought, and/or Lakeville South belongs nowhere near the top of a rankings list. (and Rosemount with a 12-5 win over Apple Valley - what is happening in that bizarre south metro...? Defense anyone? Highly suspicious of point totals from teams in that conference...)

Also in meaningless points territory, Luverne showing that a strategy of scheduling the worst possible teams they can find is a good strategy for absolutely nothing other than inflating your stats. 5+ppg against their schedule turns into 1ppg against a team ranked all the way up at... 53rd in the state. Wonder if it's good prep for playing in the WCHA?

Tonka with 6 penalties against Elk River - Holy Family with 7 against Blake. Tonka up to 162 PIMs on the season, Holy Family comfortably out front with 192. Two talented teams, but section 2 will be the battle of the undisciplined and out of control, apparently. Coach, throwing your arms up in the air and whining at EVERY SINGLE CALL... think that might have something to do with your team's discipline?

And Blake with its third straight 1 goal loss (all three with ENGs to make them two goal margins) while missing a 2 1/2 ppg player. But pretty impressive showings to outshoot the 7th ranked team and hang within a goal to the 4th ranked team without said player. Wayzata no doubts gets the 3 seed in section 6 as a result, but Blake clearly a better team at full strength.

[Eagles93]

Burnsville with a healthy Bowlby showing they are better than what people may have thought, and/or Lakeville South belongs nowhere near the top of a rankings list. (and Rosemount with a 12-5 win over Apple Valley - what is happening in that bizarre south metro...? Defense anyone? Highly suspicious of point totals from teams in that conference...)

Looks like Apple Valley had their 7th grade backup in the past two games and didn't fared well in either game, giving up 12 to both Burnsville and Rosemount. I wonder if their regular goalie got hurt or COVID?

South is the real deal, it's tough to win every game. Not saying they can beat the big 3, but as good as anyone after that. They didn't play much outside the conference but putting up 7 on Hansen is pretty impressive.

Burnsville is good, too, especially with Bowlby back. They have played without her for half the season and they are still right there for first place in the South Suburban.

[j4241]

LVS has beaten mediocre teams by a lot.

They have losses to the 18th and 33rd ranked teams in PageStat. Their best wins are over the 18, 20, 24, 26 and 31 ranked.

Just to put a point of comparison to show how hard it is to evaluate teams playing schedules of such disparate quality, Blake's 9-9 schedule (currently ranked #1 in SOS) includes losses to the 1, 2, 4, 4*, 5*, 6*, 8, 12 and 34* (games marked with * played without their forward who was scoring near Enright levels). Best wins against 6, 12, 15, 16, 18. PageStat has Blake at 14 and Lakeville South at 9. You implied they deserve 4. Maybe.

[Eagles93]

I wasn't necessarily saying South is the 4th best team in the state, I was saying they would be competitive with that next bunch of teams after the top 3. You can't punish a team for having a weaker schedule, but it's not like they're playing cupcakes every night either. The South Suburban has some pretty decent teams. Sure, not many have much depth, but neither do most teams outside the top 3.

[j4241]

Gotcha. They may be the 4th best team - who knows. I just think there is a bunch of parity after the three. Or maybe more accurately after the one (Andover), then the next 2. LVS just did not do their kids any service by scheduling zero games against what were predictably going to be the top 15 teams.

[Slap Shot]

What?

The 3, 4, 29, 34 and 36 are the presumptive top 5 seeds in 2AA (according to PageStat).

1AA has the 8 and 33 as the only teams in the same range.
3AA has the 18, 21, 22 and 28.
4AA has the 11, 12, 19 and 32.
5AA has 9, 13, 15, and 16.
6AA has the 1 (?), 5, 7, and 10.
7AA has the 2 (?), 20, 24 and 25.
8AA has the 27 (!) and 30.

Section 2AA stands out to you as talent deficiency?

It will have arguably the best section final (if rankings hold) in high school hockey. 3, 4, 5 and 8 should have good section finals (but between 2 and 4 of those will produce a team that doesn't belong among the top). 6 has the most talent (and might have a good section final). 1 and 7 will be a lopsided section final. Section 2 hardly stands out as deficient.

And Holy Familiy has beaten Benilde (5), Warroad (6), Wayzata (7), Blake (10), Gentry (11), HIll Murray (12), Centennial (15). Minnetonka is clearly a more talented team, but has proven beatable by a good goalie. Holy Family has an outstanding one. Tonka is at their best when they can pad stats by showing how much they can score against an inferior opponent. That will not be what their section final is.

Tonka is 1-1 vs. Edina. lost (2) one-goal games to Andover, beat Wayzata, Stillwater and Elk River. To say all they have done is pad stats is a bit disingenuous.

[j4241]

Had I said that, it would have been disingenuous, I agree. Not all they've done. At their best. And my comments were prefaced by talking about their talent. They have more talent assembled than any other team. It may feel unfair to a Tonka partisan to put them under this scrutiny - clearly one of the three best teams in Minnesota - maybe the best - they are very good.

But as we approach post-season play prognostication naturally starts pointing toward likely playoff success. And my point was partly about the level of discipline they are capable of showing. They can run and gun and play free-wheeling creative hockey that looks great against teams that aren't as skilled. Will be interesting to see in a state final or semi final if they can play a disciplined, structured game against a meaningfully inferior but very disciplined and structured Edina team with an elite back-end, not to mention a comparably talented and very discilpined and structured Andover team. They are capable of beating both teams. (They are also capable of losing to Holy Family, in my opinion.) They haven't shown much discipline as a team so far, either in terms of defensive discipline or penalty discipline. This Thursday will provide some good additional info on all of the above and whether it's off base.

[Slap Shot]

They haven't shown much discipline as a team so far, either in terms of defensive discipline or penalty discipline.

They have a team GAA of 1.50, haven given up 4 goals once, 3 goals twice with the rest of their games giving up 2 goals or less, their PK is 88.7% while averaging 3.5 penalties per game.

HF for the record has a team GAA of 1.75, is averaging 4.5 penalties/G with a PK of 86.7%.

[j4241]

I was not arguing Minnetonka is less disciplined than Holy Family. I think I'd explicitly pointed out the opposite early. My point is about them compared to their two peers. And Andover has been on the PK 49 times, Edina 54, compared to Tonkas 71 (and both Andover and Edina have better PK %s). Andover and Edina have GAA of 1.05 and 0.75 compared to Tonkas 1.5. Andover has given up more than 2 goals 1 time. Uma has given up more than 2 goals in regulation now 4 times in her Edina career (once this year to Andover on HDM, twice to Blake last year, and once in the state final her freshman year), and one time surrendered a third goal in OT (to Tonka this year). And both Edina and Andover have achieved these superior results while playing harder schedules than Tonka's.

But my point about being at their best against weak opponents is more about style of play and offense. When you play a weaker team, you can take chances, make overly aggressive pinches, dangerous passes, take dumb penalties to play to the crowd, try bad/pond hockey moves like a between the legs pull or an over the top toe drag - and they all work without adverse consequences a lot because your oppoenents aren't good enough to expose them as bad hockey plays, and the rest of your teammates are good enough to prevent small bad mistakes from turning into goals more often. Minnetonka is a team that does all of the above regularly - much more so than Andover (which has the talent to do things like that successfully, but is mostly disciplined enough not to), and much more so than Edina (which does not have the talent to do things like that successfully, but only has one or two kids who try). Partly as a result, Tonka's offense is relatively more successful against weak opponents. To attach some numbers to validate this, here are the average goals per game of those three teams vs teams inside and outside the top 15:

Andover:
Goals vs. top 15 teams - 3.7 (11 of 19 games)
Goals vs. non top-15 - 6.4
Difference - 2.7

Edina:
Goals vs. top 15 teams - 3.4 (11 of 20 games)
Goals vs. non top-15 - 5.1
Difference - 1.7

Tonka:
Goals vs. top 15 teams - 3.1 (7 of 20 games)
Goals vs. non top-15 - 6.5
Difference - 3.4

This is just looking at the offensive side of things, but I think provides some evidence in support of my point. Tonka has the highest goals-for of those three teams against bottom 100 teams, and the lowest goals-for against top 15 teams.

For reference, here are Holy Family's stats:
Goals vs. top 15 teams - 2.9 (10 of 20 games)
Goals vs. non top-15 - 5.4
Difference - 2.5

[Slap Shot]

You moved the goalposts from HF in sections to "the other 2" at state. Tonka will have their hands full plenty of times between now and whatever their final game is - no one has argued otherwise. But you seem intent on manufacturing a narrative and I'm not buying what you're selling. They 1-3 vs. Edina/Andover with (3) one-goal losses. The rest of your tl:dr is immaterial.

[j4241]

Haha - ok.

[girlshockey4ever]

So much drama in the LBC....