Week 6

[j4241]

A few that should be nteresting this week -

Tuesday:

Maple Grove/Elk River
Wayzata/NWC
Rosemount/Northfield
Stillwater/Roseville

Thursday:

Cretin/Mound
Edina/Stillwater
LVN/LVS

Friday:

Gentry/Orono

Saturday:

Andover/Elk River
Centennial/Rogers

[girlshockey4ever]

Results:

Elk River
Wayzata
Rosemount
Stillwater and it won't be close

Cretin

Edina
South- Not even close

Orono

Andover
Centennial

[girlshockey4ever]

And while we are at it...Let's take bets on when Ol' Uncle Randy is going to figure out how to get a power play together. Still at 0.0%. (low hanging fruit)

[bodyup88]

In Randy we trust

[moosepaw]

We didn’t even have a power play chance with Moorhead.

[j4241]

Maple Grove's season is marked by signature games in the form of a tie against a Holy Family team some people still think of as top 10, and a 4-2 (plus 2 eng) against Blake. The former is nice, the latter I think will prove very nice by the end of this season. Elk River has a signature tie against Centennial, and not much else. That one should be a good game.

Wayzata is completely dependent on Matthews, and has lost three out of four against good teams (ignoring Mounds View and Brainerd). NWC has wins against Elk River and a very good single A Orono in its last two. Also a good game.

Rosemount's only really impressive win is Gentry, and they were badly outshot in that game. Stillwater's only really impressive win is their first game of the year against Hill Murray (and I don't think the Hill star goalie played). Both teams good but are not as good as the hype around them.

Roseville / Still won't be close? Roseville beat Cretin, Still outplayed them but could not score. They have an unremarkable offense.

And that's just tonight! The reality is this season has three teams ahead of the rest (Andover, Edina, Tonka), and then a large number of teams that are apparently capable of beating eachother in the next group - Centennial (some might argue they deserve separation, but I think that's just an easy early schedule and the Tony/YHH/Sean hype/marketing nonsense - they will lose some games this year), LVS, Gentry, HF, Rosemount, Blake, Wayzata, Stillwater, Hill Murray, Holy Family, Gentry, Elk River, NWC, Rogers, maybe a couple others, not to mention Orono and Warroad in A. There is an incredible amount of parity in girls hockey this winter, which makes it an awesome season to be a fan!

[j4241]

For Thursday, Cretin/ Mound should be interesting - see if the high powered Mound offense (against A competition) can do it against a good goalie.

I agree on Edina Stillwater. Neither team can score 5v5, and Still takes a ton of penalties. Their PK will not be 90% after this game.

Lakeville South plays one of the easier AA schedules (for a metro team) - would not be shocked to see them 24-1. Enright will put up huge numbers (as will Otremba and Wright). A very strong line, but won't be tested much this year in terms of the D and goalies they play. But I highlighted the game against LVN just because it's a grudge match.

For Friday, will be interesting to see if Orono can score against Gentry. I'm skeptical - I think they will struggle to create offense against Gentry's D. I continue to believe that is the strongest D group in the state (though their goaltending is not very strong - see the Rosemount game).

Saturday's games:

Andover vs. Elk River probably won't be close - Andover has more balanced scoring than anyone, but also has a top end that's as good as any. But Christian is a warrior - she may be enough to keep it somewhat close.

Centennial faces their first real test in Rogers, other than their win against Wayzata (in which they were outshot 38-29). I'm a bit skeptical Centennial is as good as their record. Their top end is high-end but not elite - scoring a lot against so-so back-ends - and Rogers has been tough to score against. Would not be shocked to see Rogers win at home.

[Lace'emUp]

Centennial faces their first real test in Rogers, other than their win against Wayzata (in which they were outshot 38-29). I'm a bit skeptical Centennial is as good as their record. Their top end is high-end but not elite - scoring a lot against so-so back-ends - and Rogers has been tough to score against. Would not be shocked to see Rogers win at home.

#6 & #23 from Cent are elite. They're both playing at a very high level. All-state team level. Both have multiple points in all games this season, except for the Elk River game where the ER goalie stood on her head most of the day. The game on Saturday will be a huge test for both teams. Can Cent win a big game on the road? (toughest road match so far) Can Rogers finally beat a top 5 team? Cent will need to start fast, which is a problem for them. Rogers has given up a majority of their goals in the 1st period. If that door is open for Cent in the 1st, they'll have to take advantage. As usual in big games, it will come down to goalie play.

[Iceburg]

Went and watched Centennial last week. Was hoping to get a look at the 7th grader (Chatleain?) who has had some nice production. She didn’t play in the game I attended. Any Centennialites know if she’s out for a while?

[Lace'emUp]

Went and watched Centennial last week. Was hoping to get a look at the 7th grader (Chatleain?) who has had some nice production. She didn’t play in the game I attended. Any Centennialites know if she’s out for a while?

I think she'll be back tonight.

[j4241]

My comment wasn't intended to impugn O'hara or Goodreau - both are very good players - high end. I was more making a point about their top line, which includes those two and I believe a 7th grader. That 7th grader looks like she is a future star, but she is serving as the third component of a top AA line - that's a high bar. My "high end but not elite" comment was in the context of having in mind a few other top lines in the state, including Andover, Blake, Lakeville South and Tonka. I hope I don't offend with the following observations, which includes slotting individuals kids in their classes, but here is why I view all of those as meaningfully ahead of Centennials: Goodreau is one of the top 20-30 senior forwards in Minnesota. O'Hara is one of the top 5-10 junior forwards. That combination is very good, but not at the same top-end level of top lines at Andover (3 top 5-10 '23s), Blake (3 top 5-10 '23s), Lakeville South (2 top 10 '22s and a top 30 '22) and Tonka (two very good lines made up of 2 top 5-10 '23s and two top 5-10 '24s, and some others that are also very strong), at least.

Are the Centennial two playing at the all state level? Likely - but that's a pretty political/reputational selection process. Being a Gopher commit helps a lot. As an example, Franco was all state last year as a forward with 21 points in 17 games (not impugning her either - she is also very good - but last year there were many players with more impressive seasons not selected as all-state - but that are not Gophers). Centennial has also achieved those point totals against a mix of good and pretty mediocre back-ends. Their schedule through last week was the 18th hardest in Minnesota (according to myhockeyrankings.com) - better than the single A kids dominating the top of the scoring list, but not among the hardest. Of the four teams I mentioned, Blake (7th hardest schedule) and Tonka's (13th hardest) top lines are scoring at higher levels against a tougher schedule, and Lakeville South (38th hardest) is scoring at a higher level against a weaker schedule. Andover's (2nd hardest schedule) top line isn't scoring as much, but that's mostly because of the quality of their schedule and the depth of the Andover team, which means they are mostly rolling 4 lines.

Teams aren't defined by just their top lines though - defense is the backbone of any contender, and Centennial's goaltending has been top notch. They have tougher competition ahead, and if that top line keeps producing at similar levels I will eat my words - I will be cheering for them if they make me! I am just excited that there's a legitimate basis to debate whether a team some think is a top 4 team is actually outside the top 10 - there is so much parity! For what it's worth, I think they are a strong contender in the second tier of teams outside the top 3, but not separated from most of that group.

[girlshockey4ever]

I agree there is an enormous amount of parody in the league this year which makes for a super exciting regular season....With the exception of the top 3. Those 3 are in a class above the rest. Of course any given night anything can happen...but at the end of the day I expect we will see similar first round state games like we have in the past: Teams that make a nice run only to run into a Monster and get beat by 6.

[j4241]

Even the top 3... No one was beating Edina or Andover last year. Is it really so hard to see Edina losing this year? They are so much weaker offensively than they've ever been. Favorites against the rest outside of Tonka and Andover, but unbeatable?

And Tonka? They take an astronomical amount of penalties (Sadura is the career penalty minutes leader at Tonka! Early in her junior year!!! Not to mention Laroche, Distad and Avar). Easy to see them beaten by one of the pack after getting in penalty trouble if the game is called tight.

And Andover is so deep - already 16 goal scorers! But they have one D that's played a high school game before this year - 2 sophomores and 4 freshman D. Don't think you could see them stumbling under the bright lights?

Such a fun season to be a fan!

[Lace'emUp]

My comment wasn't intended to impugn O'hara or Goodreau - both are very good players - high end. I was more making a point about their top line, which includes those two and I believe a 7th grader. That 7th grader looks like she is a future star, but she is serving as the third component of a top AA line - that's a high bar. My "high end but not elite" comment was in the context of having in mind a few other top lines in the state, including Andover, Blake, Lakeville South and Tonka. I hope I don't offend with the following observations, which includes slotting individuals kids in their classes, but here is why I view all of those as meaningfully ahead of Centennials: Goodreau is one of the top 20-30 senior forwards in Minnesota. O'Hara is one of the top 5-10 junior forwards. That combination is very good, but not at the same top-end level of top lines at Andover (3 top 5-10 '23s), Blake (3 top 5-10 '23s), Lakeville South (2 top 10 '22s and a top 30 '22) and Tonka (two very good lines made up of 2 top 5-10 '23s and two top 5-10 '24s, and some others that are also very strong), at least.

Are the Centennial two playing at the all state level? Likely - but that's a pretty political/reputational selection process. Being a Gopher commit helps a lot. As an example, Franco was all state last year as a forward with 21 points in 17 games (not impugning her either - she is also very good - but last year there were many players with more impressive seasons not selected as all-state - but that are not Gophers). Centennial has also achieved those point totals against a mix of good and pretty mediocre back-ends. Their schedule through last week was the 18th hardest in Minnesota (according to myhockeyrankings.com) - better than the single A kids dominating the top of the scoring list, but not among the hardest. Of the four teams I mentioned, Blake (7th hardest schedule) and Tonka's (13th hardest) top lines are scoring at higher levels against a tougher schedule, and Lakeville South (38th hardest) is scoring at a higher level against a weaker schedule. Andover's (2nd hardest schedule) top line isn't scoring as much, but that's mostly because of the quality of their schedule and the depth of the Andover team, which means they are mostly rolling 4 lines.

Teams aren't defined by just their top lines though - defense is the backbone of any contender, and Centennial's goaltending has been top notch. They have tougher competition ahead, and if that top line keeps producing at similar levels I will eat my words - I will be cheering for them if they make me! I am just excited that there's a legitimate basis to debate whether a team some think is a top 4 team is actually outside the top 10 - there is so much parity! For what it's worth, I think they are a strong contender in the second tier of teams outside the top 3, but not separated from most of that group.

No offense taken! I base my comment over what I saw O'hara or Goodreau do 2 years ago, then last year, and now this year. Not just points on paper, but how they performed in games. The little things that make someone go from being a good player to a great player. They're both clicking together at a level far above the past two years. Their supporting players around them are also playing at a higher level. The 3rd forward on that line has been interchangeable with several other forwards on the team. They're also rolling 3 lines, something Cent hasn't been able to do for awhile. Needless to say, you cannot have a top team without top goaltending. Groess has been great in goal so far.

I do agree, and it's obvious, who the top 3 teams are. Until Cent can beat one of those top 3, they can't say they're in that crowd yet. I also agree regarding separation between them and the rest of the top 10. Not there yet. They have CP/CR tonight, then Rogers and Hill Murray before the x-mas break. Their holiday tournament has them first going against Blake, then either Stillwater or HM again. HF, Chisago, and Gentry also playing in it. The next 6 games will be a really good test for them. If they get though it with 5 or 6 wins, we can then talk about separation from the rest of the group. And with that said, we'll probably crap our pants tonight.

[j4241]

The total margin of victory for the 4 games I picked was 3 goals - two ties, a one goal win and a two goal win - not bad!

What did we learn? Stillwater throws a lot of pucks on net but can't score. Northfield seems pretty good at shutting down good players (Enright, Otremba and now Tuttle all with only one point against them). Maple Grove has a great goaltender. Wayzata and NWC are part of that large second group, but not probably closer to the middle than the top.

Also, Anoka's goalie is really good.

[skatez]

Is there really parity if every year the same three teams are the top seeds in the state tournament?

[j4241]

Fair point, but it’s an unusual year where you can credibly say there are 15ish teams that could beat anyone other than the top 3 on any given night. And those three top teams are nowhere near as good as Edina or Andover last year.

[PhunnsieMcHockeyDad]

My comment wasn't intended to impugn O'hara or Goodreau - both are very good players - high end. I was more making a point about their top line, which includes those two and I believe a 7th grader. That 7th grader looks like she is a future star, but she is serving as the third component of a top AA line - that's a high bar. My "high end but not elite" comment was in the context of having in mind a few other top lines in the state, including Andover, Blake, Lakeville South and Tonka. I hope I don't offend with the following observations, which includes slotting individuals kids in their classes, but here is why I view all of those as meaningfully ahead of Centennials: Goodreau is one of the top 20-30 senior forwards in Minnesota. O'Hara is one of the top 5-10 junior forwards. That combination is very good, but not at the same top-end level of top lines at Andover (3 top 5-10 '23s), Blake (3 top 5-10 '23s), Lakeville South (2 top 10 '22s and a top 30 '22) and Tonka (two very good lines made up of 2 top 5-10 '23s and two top 5-10 '24s, and some others that are also very strong), at least.

Are the Centennial two playing at the all state level? Likely - but that's a pretty political/reputational selection process. Being a Gopher commit helps a lot. As an example, Franco was all state last year as a forward with 21 points in 17 games (not impugning her either - she is also very good - but last year there were many players with more impressive seasons not selected as all-state - but that are not Gophers). Centennial has also achieved those point totals against a mix of good and pretty mediocre back-ends. Their schedule through last week was the 18th hardest in Minnesota (according to myhockeyrankings.com) - better than the single A kids dominating the top of the scoring list, but not among the hardest. Of the four teams I mentioned, Blake (7th hardest schedule) and Tonka's (13th hardest) top lines are scoring at higher levels against a tougher schedule, and Lakeville South (38th hardest) is scoring at a higher level against a weaker schedule. Andover's (2nd hardest schedule) top line isn't scoring as much, but that's mostly because of the quality of their schedule and the depth of the Andover team, which means they are mostly rolling 4 lines.

Teams aren't defined by just their top lines though - defense is the backbone of any contender, and Centennial's goaltending has been top notch. They have tougher competition ahead, and if that top line keeps producing at similar levels I will eat my words - I will be cheering for them if they make me! I am just excited that there's a legitimate basis to debate whether a team some think is a top 4 team is actually outside the top 10 - there is so much parity! For what it's worth, I think they are a strong contender in the second tier of teams outside the top 3, but not separated from most of that group.

No offense taken! I base my comment over what I saw O'hara or Goodreau do 2 years ago, then last year, and now this year. Not just points on paper, but how they performed in games. The little things that make someone go from being a good player to a great player. They're both clicking together at a level far above the past two years. Their supporting players around them are also playing at a higher level. The 3rd forward on that line has been interchangeable with several other forwards on the team. They're also rolling 3 lines, something Cent hasn't been able to do for awhile. Needless to say, you cannot have a top team without top goaltending. Groess has been great in goal so far.

I do agree, and it's obvious, who the top 3 teams are. Until Cent can beat one of those top 3, they can't say they're in that crowd yet. I also agree regarding separation between them and the rest of the top 10. Not there yet. They have CP/CR tonight, then Rogers and Hill Murray before the x-mas break. Their holiday tournament has them first going against Blake, then either Stillwater or HM again. HF, Chisago, and Gentry also playing in it. The next 6 games will be a really good test for them. If they get though it with 5 or 6 wins, we can then talk about separation from the rest of the group. And with that said, we'll probably crap our pants tonight.

I think it's also worth noting that Centennial made a great decision in hiring Sean Molin, the guy can be a little blunt but the kids respect him and he is a really good teacher of hockey.

[Lace'emUp]

I think it's also worth noting that Centennial made a great decision in hiring Sean Molin, the guy can be a little blunt but the kids respect him and he is a really good teacher of hockey.

1. 100% agree regarding Molin - Centennial is very lucky to have him and his staff (Juergens, Rooney, Slater, Zarembinski).
2. Regarding the Anoka goalie (Paaverud), she's one of the best I've seen this year, or maybe the last couple years. Talk about standing on your head every night! She is phenomenal. On average over 8 games, she is stopping 51 or 54 sogs every night (0.944).

[j4241]

A few that should be nteresting this week -

Thursday:

Cretin/Mound
Edina/Stillwater
LVN/LVS

Mound takes down Cretin 3-2 while outshooting them 33-32. Good win for a single A school against a team that's made noise around AA so far.

Edina smokes Stillwater 4-0, though Still outshot them 28-25. Still not much contribution by the first line at Edina, but depth made a difference for Edina tonight.

Enright with 4 points in 3-0 win (according to the hub after first entry) - must have been a heck of a performance!

[girlshockey4ever]

Tuttle continues to carry Rosemount with 3 goals in a 3-2 win vs Burnsville.

Side note: Janjet and those rankings? What do all the letters mean? I've figured out some but I'm stuck on a few others.

[j4241]

I'm very curious, too. Here's what I know:

Points (2 for W, 0 for L)
Win Margin (still unclear - I thought it just added goal differential for wins only, but that doesn't track with a few numbers I've check - close to that, though)
Quality Opponent - no clue how this is calculated
Last five - points in the last five games (2 for W...)
Adjustment factor - no clue - fudge factor? Not sure why they range from 0 to 9
Total - sum of those 5, and then the score is that number divided by games played

[slowD]

Big game tonight in Orono. It will be interesting to see how Orono fairs against Gentry. Might be the best D that Orono has faced this year?? I would say this is a bit of a must win for both teams to keep their spots in the rankings.

[j4241]

MIGHT be the best D? Who would be even a remotely close second place? Gentry's D is very, very good. One of, if not the, best top 4 D in the state. Orono will be lucky to break 15 shots, in my opinion.

[girlshockey4ever]

Tonka's D:
3 Committed D1 players including 2 Gophers.

Kelpenger (sp)
Hemp
LaRoche