State Seeding Predictions

[Eagles93]

Class A:
1 Proctor/Hermantown
2 Gentry
3 Warroad
4 Chisago Lakes
5 Mound Westonka
6-8: Luverne, River Lakes, Rochester Lourdes

Class AA:
1 Andover
2 Edina
3 Minnetonka
4 Stillwater
5 Eastview
6-8: Alexandria, Centennial, Farmington

[Joe2015]

Nailed AA...............Proctor/Hermantown slid down to #3: seems odd

[Eagles93]

Official brackets are out: https://www.mshsl.org/2021-state-girls-hockey-brackets

Class A:
1 Gentry
2 Warroad
3 Proctor/Hermantown
4 Chisago Lakes
5 Mound Westonka
6 Luverne
7 Rochester Lourdes
8 River Lakes

Class AA:
1 Andover
2 Edina
3 Minnetonka
4 Stillwater
5 Eastview
6 Alexandria
7 Centennial
8 Farmington

[Cookster]

Based on the brackets, it appears that the quarterfinals will be "doubleheaders" as it may be very difficult to play a game and remove the crowd within a 2 hour block.

If this is true, and there is a 250 seat limit for the QF, that means each team will get about 60 tickets, or 2 per family with 20 left over for administrators and others.

[bodyup88]

It appears as if P/H got the shaft tin the seedings. Not a strong regular season schedule but look what they did to Rapids when they played them. Anyway, more motivation for the Mirage.

[moosepaw]

I’m looking at what they did to GR which one do you want us to look at? The 10-2 or 4-2?

[Eagles93]

Gentry went 3-0 against other state tourney teams, so I can't argue with them getting #1 over an undefeated team. The next 3 (Warroad, P/H, Chisago) are a coin flip. Chisago got the short straw as they get Gentry in semis if they get past a solid Mound Westonka team.

[bodyup88]

Chisago recently got smoked 7-1 at home by Gentry so no short straw for the Wildcats in the seedings. Warroad's only loss was at Gentry 3-1 after a five plus hour bus ride. Gentry went 1-1 vs South St Paul, a team that just lost to No St Paul, who lost to Visitation to prevent them from going winless.

[Eagles93]

Chisago recently got smoked 7-1 at home by Gentry so no short straw for the Wildcats in the seedings. Warroad's only loss was at Gentry 3-1 after a five plus hour bus ride. Gentry went 1-1 vs South St Paul, a team that just lost to No St Paul, who lost to Visitation to prevent them from going winless.

You can go down the rabbit hole and find an ugly result where a team lost to a team that lost to a bad team, for any team not named Edina or Andover.
Chisago played a very tough class A schedule, P/H played just about the easiest schedule you'll find in the state. You either include the body of work for all teams or no teams. If it's the latter, P/H should be #1 seed simply for having a 0 in the loss column. If it's the former, you can't tell me P/H definitively deserves to be seeded higher than Chisago.

[massalsa]

It appears as if P/H got the shaft tin the seedings. Not a strong regular season schedule but look what they did to Rapids when they played them. Anyway, more motivation for the Mirage.

MNHSL wants an outstate team to play in the A final. Made the most sense to have Warroad + P/H in same side of bracket. The loser in this scenario is Chisago Lakes who will have to play Gentry...who will be a tough team to beat until they make the jump to AA with their boys team.

[Getitright]

I guess we will all find out this weekend. For the sake of argument, let’s average the scores of p/h two games against rapids. That would be 7-2. Basically the same score by which Andover, the clear #1 overall team in the state beat them. That right there and the fact they are undefeated gives one the argument they should have the 1. At the very least an argument gentry is the clear cut one is weak. P/h did not have a strong schedule but they also took care of Marshall the # 8 team 3 times winning 6-0 in the section finals, while gentry barely got by the 7 team who also beat them earlier. P/h has a strong argument but at the end of the day they decide on the ice and all our comments will be rendered mute.

[slowD]

I will bite on the debate... I understand P/H is undefeated and that is a great accomplishment and I know they were handcuffed by only being able to play local teams but...If Gentry and Warroad had been told they could only play in their section, conference, or locally odds are they would be unbeaten too and would have some high point totals. As best I can tell P/H played 2 games against 2A teams and played 3 games against top 10 teams. Gentry played 5 games against 2A teams and played 8 games against top 10 teams losing only to SSP and Stillwater both ranked in the top 10. So they went 5-3 against top 10 A and AA teams. Warroad played 8 games against 2A opponents and played 9 games against top 10 teams losing only to Gentry. They went 8-1 against top 10 A and AA schools. As far as P/H beating top 10 1A Marshall 3 times Gentry didn't play anyone other than SSP more than once and split and Warroad beat top 10 2A Roseau four times. But Getitright is correct that it will all come down to 3 wins. I am pretty excited to watch the streamed games Friday and Saturday and the TV broadcasts the following week. Good luck to all the parents and their players.

[goaliedad31]

Information out there that one AA team headed to state may have violated Covid protocol by not disclosing covid cases and exposure. They had two seniors out for the section final game and there are emails telling teammates to not tell anyone about the potential exposure.

[jg2112]

Information out there that one AA team headed to state may have violated Covid protocol by not disclosing covid cases and exposure. They had two seniors out for the section final game and there are emails telling teammates to not tell anyone about the potential exposure.

The perverse incentives of the current COVID protocol. You can't test positive if you don't get tested!

There was an easy way to avoid this. The MSHSL could have mandated a negative COVID test before getting on the ice like many companies / organizations have been requiring for months now. It's not hard to get tested and get fast results.

[Eagles93]

I noticed a couple of top players that were missing from one team's roster in a section game. They were not seniors, and it was a quarterfinal game so this must be a different team, but I wondered why they didn't play.

If it turns out the information is true, I wonder if the section runner-up would then participate in the state tourney? Or is it a bye for their opponent?

[bodyup88]

Speaking of missing players, does anyone know what happened to #8 from Warroad and #25 from Alexandria? Looks like #25 played the first two games for Alex and #8 not at all for Warriors this year. Somewhat conspicuous by their absence

[slowD]

#25 out with a knee injury and not sure about the Warroad girl for sure but heard possibly some personal issues.

[j4241]

Here’s another view to seedings/rankings. Myhockeyrankings.com uses score differential (capped at 7 per game) to create a ranking and strength of schedule. Their underlying math is probably not as robust as lsq and KRACH, but defensible, and they have a website that stays up and can show history. It is obviously subject to the same flaw all of these numerical rankings are, which is that there was not enough cross schedule play. Nevertheless, here are the dual class (so rankings and SoS for all A and AA team together) rankings for the two fields (teams listed in order of seedings). Number on left is their ranking, number on right is the rank of their SoS, and the order they are listed is the seeding:

AA
2 Andover 65
1 Edina 1
5 Minnetonka 9
12 Stillwater 52
10 Eastview 18
25 Alexandria 29
33 Centennial 50
14 Farmington 12

A
6 Gentry 23
3 Warroad 28
11 Proctor 84
21 Chisago 49
66 Luverne 114
18 Mound 75
78 Rochester 89
47 River Lakes 72

[Getitright]

Looks like that weak schedule and “under the radar, can’t compete with the big girls” thing may work out ok for proctor/hermantown. May not win in the finals but certainly proving the are at that level.