Scoring lost/returning: Class AA

[Thoen88]

Now that it looks like games will be starting this week, I took a minute to look at what each team in class AA lost to graduation in regard to scoring. These numbers are for class AA only and reflect the stats posted on the MNGIRLSHOCKEYHUB wesbite during the regular season. Now I think we can all agree that the numbers that get posted on that site need to be taken with a truckload of salt, but it is all that is made public. Plus, it will be more enjoyable to discuss actual on-ice issues and not the pandemic. This also DOES NOT take into account the transfers/moves that have taken place that many of us already know about. This is just based on the final regular season numbers from a season ago. Sue me, I was bored.

5 Teams that lost the most points to graduation:
Forest Lake - 255
Blake - 182
Minnetonka - 165
Roseau - 151
Anoka - 149

5 Teams that lost the fewest points to graduation:
Benilde - 0
Hopkins - 4
Roch Century - 7
Jefferson - 8
Chaska - 11

5 Teams that lost the highest percentage of scoring:
Anoka - 82%
Bemidji - 76%
Forest Lake - 73%
North Wright County - 68%
Minnetonka - 67%
Blake - 67%
Brainerd - 67%

Top 5 returning senior classes (Jrs last year):
Andover - 159
Edina - 141
Roseau - 133
Maple Grove - 117
Chaska - 107

Top 5 returning junior classes (Sophs last year):
Benilde - 100
Lakeville South - 95
Rogers - 90
Chaska - 84
Duluth - 79

Top 5 returning sophomore classes (Fresh last year):
Owatonna - 96
East Ridge - 80
Holy Family - 70
Northfield - 57
Andover - 54

[Eagles93]

Wow, this is great, thanks for putting it together. Chaska looks to be a pretty solid team this year, I didn't realize they were so young last year.

It would also be cool to see which teams are losing goalies that played the majority of minutes. (I'm not asking you to do this, unless you're still bored. )

[Thoen88]

The goalie stats are even more F’d up than the scoring numbers. A lot of times the W/L records don’t match because sometimes both goalies on the roster were given credit for playing in the game.

Wow, this is great, thanks for putting it together. Chaska looks to be a pretty solid team this year, I didn't realize they were so young last year.

It would also be cool to see which teams are losing goalies that played the majority of minutes. (I'm not asking you to do this, unless you're still bored. )

[Eagles93]

The goalie stats are even more F’d up than the scoring numbers. A lot of times the W/L records don’t match because sometimes both goalies on the roster were given credit for playing in the game.

I figured that, it's tough to make a list of goalies by something measurable. I was thinking something simple like minutes played (which I know can also be inaccurate) can tell you if the team's "#1" goalie graduated.

[jg2112]

Now I think we can all agree that the numbers that get posted on that site need to be taken with a truckload of salt

This is a direct shot at Warroad. Granted, Single A, but still....

As to the other point, graduated senior goalies off the top of my head include Andover (who recruited a fine replacement), Hill-Murray (who will be just fine), Stillwater, North Wright County, Woodbury, Forest Lake (who takes over for Goehner?), Apple Valley, Faribault, and Delano/Rockford.

Also worth mentioning that Holy Family (boys and girls) lose a 2021 D1 goalie to Prior Lake.

I'll go ahead and predict 4 of the Senior Goalie finalists will be Dulac, Greene, Skavnak and Thompson (Mounds View).

[Eagles93]

As to the other point, graduated senior goalies off the top of my head include Andover (who recruited a fine replacement), Hill-Murray (who will be just fine), Stillwater, North Wright County, Woodbury, Forest Lake (who takes over for Goehner?), Apple Valley, Faribault, and Delano/Rockford.

Eastview and Lakeville South as well, off the top of my head.

[Thoen88]

Was not taking a “direct shot” at anyone. I never spent any time looking at class A. Just pointing out a fact that after having followed this stuff for several years, the numbers that get posted are not always accurate.

Now I think we can all agree that the numbers that get posted on that site need to be taken with a truckload of salt

This is a direct shot at Warroad. Granted, Single A, but still....

As to the other point, graduated senior goalies off the top of my head include Andover (who recruited a fine replacement), Hill-Murray (who will be just fine), Stillwater, North Wright County, Woodbury, Forest Lake (who takes over for Goehner?), Apple Valley, Faribault, and Delano/Rockford.

Also worth mentioning that Holy Family (boys and girls) lose a 2021 D1 goalie to Prior Lake.

I'll go ahead and predict 4 of the Senior Goalie finalists will be Dulac, Greene, Skavnak and Thompson (Mounds View).

[jg2112]

Was not taking a “direct shot” at anyone. I never spent any time looking at class A. Just pointing out a fact that after having followed this stuff for several years, the numbers that get posted are not always accurate.

Now I think we can all agree that the numbers that get posted on that site need to be taken with a truckload of salt

This is a direct shot at Warroad. Granted, Single A, but still....

As to the other point, graduated senior goalies off the top of my head include Andover (who recruited a fine replacement), Hill-Murray (who will be just fine), Stillwater, North Wright County, Woodbury, Forest Lake (who takes over for Goehner?), Apple Valley, Faribault, and Delano/Rockford.

Also worth mentioning that Holy Family (boys and girls) lose a 2021 D1 goalie to Prior Lake.

I'll go ahead and predict 4 of the Senior Goalie finalists will be Dulac, Greene, Skavnak and Thompson (Mounds View).

Sorry, I didn't make it clear I wasn't accusing you of anything. Just a joke.

Warroad seems to always have 2 assists per goal. It's something I've noticed over the years.

[j4241]

I love this analysis - really interesting. Two confounding factors - strength of schedule and minutes. Chan/Chaska returns a ton of points, but those were earned against the 30th hardest schedule in Minnesota (according to myhockeyrankings.com - not perfect, but not bad and easily accessible historical rankings and SoS data). BSM returns fewer, but earned against a much harder schedule. BSMs is more impressive, which is part of why I rank them highly. On minutes, on the other hand, BSM lost no one, which means there are no minutes for returning players to fill. I expect them to score more, because points per minute should go up as they kids are a year older and better, even if minutes don't. Blake, at the other end of the spectrum, has 60ish% of its (forward) minutes to fill in with its returning players (given how much the three seniors played). They lost a lot of points, they open up a lot of minutes - will be interesting to see how much they score as their younger players are on the ice a lot more.

On the dig at Warroad - one easy test to assess stat keeping - any team showing more than about 2.4 points / goal has coaches that are stat padding (or kids doing it with refs), awarding assists that weren't earned (this is a number from my own experience, not empirically derived). Goals go unassisted sometimes - not every goal has a second assist. Warroad had over 2.6 points per goal awarded last year, implying roughly 40 points were fictional. (This ignores the fact they also pad stats by shamelessly running up the score against terrible teams.) Interestingly, looking at a couple of other teams in this way, I stumbled across Orono showing 290 points on 104 goals, or 2.79 points per goal. That is a little shameless. Edina was at 2.7 (they passed well, but nope). Andover was 2.5 (borderline). By contrast, BSM was a little over 2.2, Blake was 2.4, Minnetonka was 2.4, Maple Grove was 2.3.