An early look at top teams for '22-23

[j4241]

One final piece of analysis on last year's scoring data, with an eye towards who is going to field the toughest top lines next year: I looked at the goal scoring rate that each team is returning for their top 5 players - 3 forwards and 2 D. In other words, for each team, these 3 forwards and 2 D each had the highest individual goal/game rate last year.

In order to try to put the scoring rates on a level playing field a bit, I looked at scoring rates in games versus top 20 teams (page 1), as well as overall (page 2). Some teams top 20 opponents were of much different average quality than others, but I used top 20 rather than top 10 because it allowed me to include more games (and avoid the possibility of small samples sizes creating less relevant results), and in my other analysis it seemed like top 20 scoring was roughly, if not perfectly, predictive of top 10 scoring. I included what I believe will be some of the top overall teams next year, so excluded teams like Luverne, Apple Valley, Mound, and others that will be unlikely to crack the top 10, even though some have returning players who scored at a fairly high rate (although generally not against top 20 competition).

Here is the link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

This is just about offense, not defense, so a team like Edina with an outstanding goaltender will be better than their modest level of returning goal scoring punch suggests. It is also just about top lines, not depth, so teams like Andover and Tonka that will field lines after their top ones that will be both very tough to score against and contribute offense will be even better than this suggests. Finally, it is based on last year’s goal scoring - some kids will play bigger roles and get more ice time, and some kids will get better.

It's not a perfect predictor of team performance, obviously, but it's an interesting starting point.

A couple observations of note:

Andover is just unfairly good. And if their frosh forwards and D get better the way most do between 9th and 10th grade - yikes.

Gentry returns basically everybody, and their top is very, very good. Their depth is nowhere near the quality of Andover or Tonka’s, nor is their goaltending, but they will be a very tough team next year.

Warroad's scoring punch falls way off when comparing their top 5s overall scoring (4.7 goals/game) to their scoring vs top 20 teams (1.3 goals/game). Put an asterisk next to the gaudy point totals, but they will be very good again next year.

Tonka’s top forwards versus top 20 teams only scored (1.2 G/Game) at just over half the rate of Andover’s (2.3), and also well behind Blake (2.1) and Gentry’s (1.7), and slightly behind Maple Grove’s (1.5) and Warroad’s (1.3). But when their D scoring gets added to the mix, their top is near the top of the heap. Their success is rooted in depth, though - that includes kids going to the U18 camp this year that were NOT included in their top 5. Yikes.

Tonka and Hill’s goal scoring punch at D accounts for a significant % of the scoring of their top 5. Of course, this analysis is not terribly useful at assessing the offensive contributions of D - part of why Sajevic scores so much is because of the outstanding playmaking of the Gazdik’s, and part of why the Andover trio scores so much is because of the outstanding playmaking of Mumm, Jones, Little, etc. Conversely, part of why the Tonka forwards point totals are more weighted towards assists is because they have D that can consistently contribute goal scoring.

Stillwater and Hill return a lot, but don’t particularly stand out in this analysis. The opportunity for them is to see how much Boreen and St. Martin can improve on their sophomore campaigns. Usually that’s a year of significant growth. Both played with a lot of swagger as sophs, and played big minutes, so it will be interesting to see what next year looks like for them - they will drive how high their teams manage to climb.

Benilde, Wayzata and even Edina have significant holes to fill. BSM’s kids are young - they will likely improve next year, and they will be getting a lot more ice time after all the BSM seniors have moved on. Wayzata’s group will get more ice time, but they will sorely miss Matthews. Edina will always have a good team, but it will be interesting to see how much tougher life is when you’re best forward and D has moved on - especially when they’re the same person. Section 6 might be more interesting than in past years.

[PhunnsieMcHockeyDad]

This is great, do you take requests? Cretin-Derham Hall?

[j4241]

Sure! Standby....

[PhunnsieMcHockeyDad]

Muetzel is gone, Anderson will be the 3rd wheel on the line with Ahern and Broz. Thanks!

[j4241]

Doh! My bad again - will update.

[j4241]

Done! As per this exchange, no guarantees this is 100% accurate, but it was not a casual effort.

[Eagles93]

Appreciate the analysis and insight! Few thoughts:

I knew Holy Family lost a lot, but didn't add up the players/point production that graduated. They still have a few solid players left but I don't think Tonka will be nearly as worried about them as last year in 2AA.

Unless they have Tonka or Andover scheduled this year, Warroad not going undefeated this year would be a surprise.

Could this be the year Blake makes it past Edina in sections? I don't think so, despite losing a lot, Edina always seems to reload.

The numbers are interesting but in the end, it would be a major upset if we don't see a Tonka/Andover championship. Which is disappointing once again for the lack of parity.

[PhunnsieMcHockeyDad]

Done! As per this exchange, no guarantees this is 100% accurate, but it was not a casual effort.

Thanks!

[PhunnsieMcHockeyDad]

Appreciate the analysis and insight! Few thoughts:

I knew Holy Family lost a lot, but didn't add up the players/point production that graduated. They still have a few solid players left but I don't think Tonka will be nearly as worried about them as last year in 2AA.

Unless they have Tonka or Andover scheduled this year, Warroad not going undefeated this year would be a surprise.

Could this be the year Blake makes it past Edina in sections? I don't think so, despite losing a lot, Edina always seems to reload.

The numbers are interesting but in the end, it would be a major upset if we don't see a Tonka/Andover championship. Which is disappointing once again for the lack of parity.

As good as Tonka and Andover are now, both programs have top shelf talent coming up through the ranks too....only going to get better. Gentry will be there with them this season and could knock one out in the Semi's. Sections 2 and 7 are already over.

Section 3 - ugh - Rosemount lost a ton, AV & Burnsville combining make a one-line team, CDH will be talented but really young. Top programs in other sections will be drooling over the chance to move in next summer.

Section 4 will be a 3-way battle for one more year, Gentry will be really tough to knock out this season. Stillwater will have the top spot in '23-'24 and then the Pohl/Engelhardt group at Hill takes over (although Stillwater has some really good players entering 15U this season). I wouldn't be shocked to see one of those programs move to a soft Section 3 after this season.

Centennial is well coached and talented, Maple Grove is the same....top contenders in 5

Edina still the team to beat in Section 6 but both BSM and Holy Angels are adding young talent. Blake's top line is as good as any but they don't have enough depth to compete.

[j4241]

Good point - I should have included Holy Family - done now. They lost a lot, but do have talented players returning. They aren't among the top teams in this analysis, but aren't the bottom either. Tonka's top end has a 0.8 goals/game advantage over them against good teams (1.8 vs 1.0), which is a lot.

I should probably also include Burnsville/Apple Valley. That conference is so bad and they only play eachother so that scoring data is sparse, but the younger Moran is obviously a high-end talent - will be interesting to see how good she is if they ever play top end teams.

Warroad makes an effort to travel to find good competition, but mostly plays a cupcake schedule. Nobody in the north will beat them, but Gentry would certainly give Warroad a good game - I would bet on Gentry in that matchup. Hill Murray, Maple Grove, Blake, Edina and Holy Family (the latter two particularly because of goaltending) would also likely give them a test. Warroad's top end includes talented players, and only playing 6 games against top 20 teams makes it tough to rely on those stats as the sample size is so small, but this analysis suggests their top end scoring punch is behind the top AA teams.

If Edina played without skates they'd be the favorite until someone in section 6 actually beats them. But next year the top end scoring talent is tilted towards Blake (the 0.9 goals/game advantage of Blake's top end against good teams (2.1 vs. 1.2) is larger than Tonka's over Holy Family, for example) - I don't think this has ever been the case for an Edina/Blake matchup. Halvorsen is talented and is younger then the rest in this analysis, so her improvement soph to jr year is a wild card. And even ignoring that, It's not a toss up - I'd still probably bet Edina because of depth and goaltending - but it should be interesting. (Don't mean to ignore BSM and Wayzata - they will be better in future years - but both lost so much that neither would beat Edina, and an upset over Blake would be a big one.)

On the predicted state final - agreed - the transfers into those programs, coupled with large and well run youth programs, has made them almost untouchable. Maybe by Gentry, or one of the next few in an upset (after all, an equally strong Tonka team lost 7 games last year), but I'd certainly bet on a Tonka / Andover final.

[j4241]

As good as Tonka and Andover are now, both programs have top shelf talent coming up through the ranks too....only going to get better. Gentry will be there with them this season and could knock one out in the Semi's. Sections 2 and 7 are already over.

Andover will be good for years on the strength of their '25 class alone. The challenge for Tonka will be keeping the youth. Their move-ins have directly translated into losing a lot of very talented rising 9th and 10th graders. Don't think that's as common on Andover's side, but it's an issue. BSM has been a major beneficiary.

Centennial is well coached and talented, Maple Grove is the same....top contenders in 5

Both also benefit from good goaltending - but I think the talent returning at Maple Grove puts them among the better teams in AA - not sure that's the case for Centennial. Centennial has some youth that will still be on a steep slope of improvement that could make them better than I'm giving them credit for, O'Hara is a very good player and Groess is a very good goaltender, but that's probably not enough to beat a Maple Grove that returns an entire top line that was very good, and equal if not better goaltending.

Edina still the team to beat in Section 6 but both BSM and Holy Angels are adding young talent. Blake's top line is as good as any but they don't have enough depth to compete.

If you're making a statement about the future, I agree. BSM will be very good in the future (isn't Holy Angels single A?). Gray, Hassler - both high end talent. Some move-ins that carry big reputations from youth hockey. Nevertheless, next year, which is what my comments were about, BSM could upset Blake, but it would be a huge upset. When Blake's top trio is off the ice, Blake will field a group of mostly seniors that's played two years of high school hockey against a top 5 schedule. They won't score much but they will be tough even for top teams to score against. But you're being a little quick to dismiss the impact of Blake's top line. One thing to consider when you look at the scoring data - every well-coached team that played Blake knew they had one line to stop, which meant teams like BSM and Edina played senior D like Peschel (and Hoen) and Jungels (and Maxwell) against them for most shifts. Those players aren't there to slow them down anymore. Like I said, I still pick Edina, but this is probably Blake's best chance to beat them since 2018, and to say Blake won't compete is going way too far.

[girlshockey4ever]

Great Data! One thing to consider and I know it's a ton of work but taking a look at the next three forward scorers data. That's what seperates the teams. Everyone has a first line. Blake, CDH, HF, BSM. They all have a good 1st line. What does their returning depth look like. For example, Kaiser is gone from Andover and she was a major player on their second line. What does Blake second line look like? HF second line was a non-factor last year. What do they return. By getting at that data you can really separate the next five teams after Andover Tonka.

[j4241]

Added Burnsville/AV. They show highly on this analysis (2nd highest scoring average against top 20 opponents), with offsetting caveats. Moran's scoring totals are impressive for a frosh - will be interesting to see how much she improves. But the "top 20" opponents for AV and Burnsville are not apples to apples with anyone elses - neither Burnsville nor AV played a single top 10 team during the regular season (with final rankings putting LVS outside the top 10), while most others top 20 was mostly top 10 (10 of 17 for Andover, 11 of 15 for Blake, 7 of 12 for Tonka and 6 of 12 for Gentry). Still, they will likely rip through the weak southern conference next year.

[j4241]

Blake, CDH, HF, BSM. They all have a good 1st line.

One of these next year is very, very, very not like the others. The difference in goal scoring ability for Blake and the other three next year is huge.

For example, Kaiser is gone from Andover and she was a major player on their second line.

Huh? She was the dominant scorer for HF last year - a good team that had a strong record because no lines gave up many goals, and she scored a lot. I'm not sure how you think of her as a second line player - that's not how she was used.

By getting at that data you can really separate the next five teams after Andover Tonka.

Scoring is hard in girls hockey, and well coached groups of average talent can be tough to score against, and that can be enough for a top line to dictate the outcome of a game. Not many second line's scoring ability "is what separate the teams." But no doubt depth matters a lot - it's just too much to compile.

[Eagles93]

There were rumors Apple Valley and Burnsville were going to merge, but has it been confirmed? Their schedules for the upcoming season show them facing each other, although only once where they play all other SSC teams twice. Obviously schedules can change but you'd think they'd want to figure out a merger by now.

[j4241]

Oh! I thought that was a done deal, too.

[jg2112]

Blake, CDH, HF, BSM. They all have a good 1st line.

One of these next year is very, very, very not like the others. The difference in goal scoring ability for Blake and the other three next year is huge.

For example, Kaiser is gone from Andover and she was a major player on their second line.

Huh? She was the dominant scorer for HF last year - a good team that had a strong record because no lines gave up many goals, and she scored a lot. I'm not sure how you think of her as a second line player - that's not how she was used.

By getting at that data you can really separate the next five teams after Andover Tonka.

Scoring is hard in girls hockey, and well coached groups of average talent can be tough to score against, and that can be enough for a top line to dictate the outcome of a game. Not many second line's scoring ability "is what separate the teams." But no doubt depth matters a lot - it's just too much to compile.

The original post was referring to Sara Kaiser, not Madison (the Andover departee to Holy Family). Only one of these Kaisers scored a State-title winning goal.

[j4241]

Oh - haha! I missed that - thrown by "gone from Andover." They both are!

[j4241]

I just realized I forgot to explain one piece of the worksheet. The second page has a section at the bottom showing the '20-21 scoring totals (the year prior) for the same forwards for a few of the teams. There are some factors that likely explain some of the differences - some kids playing larger roles, some significant change in schedule difficulty, some kids moving teams, but I thought it was useful to see what kind of jump the younger kids might see in scoring. How much more will sophomores like St. Martin, Halvorson or Distad score next year? Tough to predict, but looking at kids who played top roles the year prior (as those three all did for their teams), and against roughly similar strength of schedule (a list that include Sadura, Lindsay, Broz, Higuchi and Sajevic), the average goal increase was 0.1 goals, with a minimum of -0.1, and a max of 0.4, which might give some indication of how much of a bump to expect.

[Lace'emUp]

Centennial is well coached and talented, Maple Grove is the same....top contenders in 5

Both also benefit from good goaltending - but I think the talent returning at Maple Grove puts them among the better teams in AA - not sure that's the case for Centennial. Centennial has some youth that will still be on a steep slope of improvement that could make them better than I'm giving them credit for, O'Hara is a very good player and Groess is a very good goaltender, but that's probably not enough to beat a Maple Grove that returns an entire top line that was very good, and equal if not better goaltending.

Correct all all accounts for Centennial regarding the youth (still a question mark), O'Hara & Groess (both great), and not having enough to beat Maple Grove (true). More so, they lose Goodreau, there's no guarantee Cody and O'Hearn will step up their senior season, and Centennial only returns 3 full-time defenseman (Thompson, Larsen, Newpower). Katie Ball can move back to D and do great, but they were playing her at Fwd the last half of the season. If not Ball, they would have to go to JV (Jarpey or Desnoyers) or youth (maybe Kelzenberg) to find a 4th. IMO, Centennial's top line will probably be O'Hara, Hemr, and Laager, with Thompson and Larsen anchoring the D. But Molin mixes things up, a lot. The only top line guarantee is O'Hara.

[Slap Shot]

It's a chicken and egg argument imho.

Are players leaving Tonka because of transfers coming in, or are the coaches seeking out transfers because some of their homegrown talent has chosen to go private? Tonka has been losing kids to BSM, Blake, etc. for years upon years - before transfers were even a thing.

Wayzata for years was decimated by losing players to privates on the boys side, but finally withing the past handful of years they've started to be able to keep more of them.

[j4241]

There's no doubt those programs have consistently lost kids, but I think this moment in time is a slightly different phenomenon. Many families scrambled looking for new schools only after they realized there were four incoming transfers to Tonka last year. Several of those are future strong high school players that Tonka lost because of the inbound transfers.

[pucker88]

Burnsville/AV most likely not happening. South Suburban Conference voted against (6 no, 1 yes, 1 abstain). Even though the girls youth is teaming up (BV/AV/Eastview), it was supposedly also turned down by school district. Even though the HS boys (AV/BV) have worked it out. Say goodbye to Burnsville hockey. Hard to watch a program go under, no matter what caliber or ranking. Time for the MSHSL to draw new sections, which should have been done 5 years ago.

[j4241]

I updated the spreadsheet to reflect the two different teams.

[j4241]

For what it's worth, the top trio/quint from Apple Valley still looks pretty favorable overall - roughly tied for the third highest returning line overall, and scored at a similar level to the Gentry group that played a roughly similar schedule (according to myhockeyrankings). They also ranked second against top 20 competition (although a very small dataset and a weaker top 20 schedule than most others).